Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs. MSCI EM), we see these trends continuing well into 2018.  Elsewhere, Russia is on the cusp of a breakout. The Philippines is breaking out. And Korea, a market that broke out earlier this year from a 6-year base, is a buy on weakness.  Today’s report includes a complete summary of our EM views as well as a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs. MSCI EM), we see these trends continuing well into 2018.  Elsewhere, Russia is on the cusp of a breakout. The Philippines is breaking out. And Korea, a market that broke out earlier this year from a 6-year base, is a buy on weakness.  Today’s report includes a complete summary of our EM views as well as a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  </li>
<li>
On…</li>
</ul>

Summary
Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, Apple Inc (AAPL US) Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  

On…


Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Taiwan

Qisda Corporation manufactures and markets computer peripheral, communication, and consumer electronic products.  The Company also provides consulting and technical services.  The main products are multimedia displays, keyboards, scanners, mobile phones, and compact disk read only memory (CD-ROM) drives.

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Qisda Corp (2352 TT)

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for...

Vermilion Research

EM Outlook: Bullish, Led by BRIC and Asia

Asia and the BRIC segment continue to outperform the broad EM universe. Based on technical breakouts in each of their relative strength trends (vs....

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

Points from Taiwan Semi/Tech 2Q Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways...

Andrew Lu

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