Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Logistics and infrastructure play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube (QUB AU)</a> has announced the Macquarie Asset Management-led consortium has now firmed an Offer at A$5.20/share, the same price as the NBIO.</li>
<li>Terms equate to a 27.8% premium to undisturbed. And ~14.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Fully franked dividends up to A$0.40/share are permitted but will be netted. UniSuper to roll up its 15.07%</li>
<li>Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB, ACCC, OIO, and PNG regs.</li>
</ul>


Logistics and infrastructure play Qube (QUB AU) has announced the Macquarie Asset Management-led consortium has now firmed an Offer at A$5.20/share, the same price as the NBIO.
Terms equate to a 27.8% premium to undisturbed. And ~14.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Fully franked dividends up to A$0.40/share are permitted but will be netted. UniSuper to roll up its 15.07%
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB, ACCC, OIO, and PNG regs.


Qube (QUB AU): Trading Tight To Macquarie's Firm Offer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> has entered into a scheme implementation deed with a consortium led by Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on regulatory approvals and shareholder approval. ACCC approval is the wild card and could require undertakings, potentially delaying implementation.  </li>
<li>The offer represents an all-time high, and the scheme vote is low-risk. At the last close, and for a July-end payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.8%/8.4%. </li>
</ul>



Qube Holdings (QUB AU) has entered into a scheme implementation deed with a consortium led by Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The scheme is conditional on regulatory approvals and shareholder approval. ACCC approval is the wild card and could require undertakings, potentially delaying implementation.  
The offer represents an all-time high, and the scheme vote is low-risk. At the last close, and for a July-end payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.8%/8.4%. 


Qube Holdings (QUB AU): MAM Consortium’s Binding Proposal at A$5.20

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a>, a logistics and infrastructure play, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251124/pdf/06sd9l6yvwkypf.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macquarie-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:310:1" rel="noopener">Macquarie Group (MQG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal "follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value." Dividends paid will be netted.</li>
<li>Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.</li>
</ul>



Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal "follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value." Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.


<ul>
<li>For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2025 Wrap: Qube, Forum Engineering, National Storage REIT, Star Micronics

<ul>
<li>This deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> from Macquarie should really get competitive. Scarce and strategic assets  - and nothing else like it that's listed. </li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings (2389 JP)</a> goes higher, "This is Japan" risk increases; but those who didn't sign up say "wait a minute, that's real money" also goes up.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:606:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)</a> is at extreme levels vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>; yet consensus indicates considerably higher forward EBITDA growth for Resorts stub ops vs. Macau.</li>
</ul>


This deal for Qube Holdings (QUB AU) from Macquarie should really get competitive. Scarce and strategic assets  - and nothing else like it that's listed. 
As Digital Holdings (2389 JP) goes higher, "This is Japan" risk increases; but those who didn't sign up say "wait a minute, that's real money" also goes up.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) is at extreme levels vs. Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK); yet consensus indicates considerably higher forward EBITDA growth for Resorts stub ops vs. Macau.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Qube Holdings, Digital Holdings, Wynn Resorts/Macau, SNT/SMEC

Australia

Qube Holdings Ltd. is a logistics company. The Group operates in divisions covering Automotive, Bulk and General Stevedoring, Landside Logistics and Strategic Development Assets.

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Qube Holdings (QUB AU)

Qube (QUB AU): Trading Tight To Macquarie's Firm Offer

That strikes me as being way too tight, even if factoring in franking credits for those who can take advantage; and especially noting ACCC may well...

David Blennerhassett