Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

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Equity Capital Markets

Caryle plans to sell its 9.5% stake in Qube Holdings for US$265m/AUD350m. Earlier in the year, Qube had raised round A$500m to finance its purchase of  of 50% stake in Patrick Container Terminals Business, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/qube-holdings-well-flagged-deal-means-limited-risk-and-possibly-limited-returns" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:3052">QUBE Holdings - Well Flagged Deal Means Limited Risk and Possibly Limited Returns</a>. The deal scores well on our framework given its track record combined with stellar recent performance, post the acquisition closing. Nevertheless, this is a large deal to digest, and comes with no discount to…

Caryle plans to sell its 9.5% stake in Qube Holdings for US$265m/AUD350m. Earlier in the year, Qube had raised round A$500m to finance its purchase of  of 50% stake in Patrick Container Terminals Business, QUBE Holdings - Well Flagged Deal Means Limited Risk and Possibly Limited Returns. The deal scores well on our framework given its track record combined with stellar recent performance, post the acquisition closing. Nevertheless, this is a large deal to digest, and comes with no discount to…

QUBE Holdings - Size Vs Discount Doesn't Provide Much Comfort

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Interbank Cash Rate Futures point to a 65% probability that the RBA will cut the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 1.5% on Tuesday.  Real rates have effectively lifted in the first half of CY2016, with the 25 basis point cut to the OCR in May only partially offsetting the 50 basis point decline in underlying inflation.</li><li>Consequently, Evidente believes that the central bank should deliver another rate cut this week of 25 basis points.  With the Governor’s ten year term about to end in September, surely Mr Stevens will not want to leave a legacy of have tolerated a 50 basis point undershoot on the RBA’s inflation target?</li><li>Since its launch a month ago, the key macro principle guiding Evidente’s model portfolio has been the prospect that interest rates will remain low for an extended period due to the shortfall in aggregate demand.  As a result, the portfolio retains a strong defensive bias, with an overall beta of less than 0.85.  Over the past month, the portfolio delivered alpha of 1.2%, reflecting stock selection within the small cyclical budget, including overweights in MND (+41%), BSL (+32%), MYR (+19%) and PMV (+14%). </li></ul>

Interbank Cash Rate Futures point to a 65% probability that the RBA will cut the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 1.5% on Tuesday.  Real rates have effectively lifted in the first half of CY2016, with the 25 basis point cut to the OCR in May only partially offsetting the 50 basis point decline in underlying inflation.Consequently, Evidente believes that the central bank should deliver another rate cut this week of 25 basis points.  With the Governor’s ten year term about to end in September, surely Mr Stevens will not want to leave a legacy of have tolerated a 50 basis point undershoot on the RBA’s inflation target?Since its launch a month ago, the key macro principle guiding Evidente’s model portfolio has been the prospect that interest rates will remain low for an extended period due to the shortfall in aggregate demand.  As a result, the portfolio retains a strong defensive bias, with an overall beta of less than 0.85.  Over the past month, the portfolio delivered alpha of 1.2%, reflecting stock selection within the small cyclical budget, including overweights in MND (+41%), BSL (+32%), MYR (+19%) and PMV (+14%). 

Retain Defensive Bias as the Reluctant Rate Cutter Likely to Deliver More Stimulus

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Significant merger investigations during the first half of 2016 lasted 9.5 months on average—on par with CY2015, but more than 30 percent longer than from 2011 to 2013.</li><li>In the first half of 2016, there were 14 significant merger investigations, which is on pace to challenge the record set in CY2015.</li><li>The antitrust agencies filed seven complaints over the 12 months ending Q2 2016, compared to four complaints in the prior 12 months.</li><li>The government lost three merger challenges over the past 10 months after not losing a single trial challenging a reportable transaction in the prior eight years.</li><li>Merger litigation filed in 2015 lasted nearly 5 months, about 20 percent longer than earlier litigated challenges.</li></ul>

Significant merger investigations during the first half of 2016 lasted 9.5 months on average—on par with CY2015, but more than 30 percent longer than from 2011 to 2013.In the first half of 2016, there were 14 significant merger investigations, which is on pace to challenge the record set in CY2015.The antitrust agencies filed seven complaints over the 12 months ending Q2 2016, compared to four complaints in the prior 12 months.The government lost three merger challenges over the past 10 months after not losing a single trial challenging a reportable transaction in the prior eight years.Merger litigation filed in 2015 lasted nearly 5 months, about 20 percent longer than earlier litigated challenges.

Antitrust Investigation Duration Near Record Levels; Merger Litigation Taking Longer, Too

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/868/original/Chart2.Australia.Risk_.Pref_.png?1467594254" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9868"><figcaption class="figcaption">Australians risk-averse? Not today, mate (Source: Europacifica)</figcaption></figure> Speculation that Australia will lose its <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-the-trafficjam-political-culture-threatening-aaa-credit-rating-20160703-gpxil9" target="_blank">AAA rating</a> due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/george-osborne-to-speak-in-attempt-to-calm-markets-following-bre/" target="_blank">the final downgrade</a> to the UK's own rating, motivated by the recent EU referendum.  Medium-term, the "lucky country" might very well escape the fate of capital flight, given there are many more controversial events (such as US elections) that affect Australia little. Whenever appetite for risk revives…

Australians risk-averse? Not today, mate (Source: Europacifica) Speculation that Australia will lose its AAA rating due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by the final downgrade to the UK's own rating, motivated by the recent EU referendum.  Medium-term, the "lucky country" might very well escape the fate of capital flight, given there are many more controversial events (such as US elections) that affect Australia little. Whenever appetite for risk revives…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Asciano has cleared a legal impediment to its takeover by resolving its dispute with its joint venture partners in trucking company ACFS, and in the process, likely alleviated some of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's, or ACCC, concerns about the takeover proposal from consortiums led by Qube Holdings and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners.The generous takeover was unsurprisingly approved by Asciano shareholders. It remains contingent on ACCC and Foreign Investment Review Board, or FIRB, approval. The ACCC's final decision is expected on 21 July, though further delays are possible in this complex and sensitive transaction. The FIRB is unlikely to drag its heels once the ACCC's decision is known. We continue to think the takeover is likely to succeed, however, risk-averse investors may want to sell on market to lock in gains given failure of the takeover would see the share price fall hard.Analysts: Adrian Atkins &amp; Carolyn Holmes

Asciano has cleared a legal impediment to its takeover by resolving its dispute with its joint venture partners in trucking company ACFS, and in the process, likely alleviated some of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's, or ACCC, concerns about the takeover proposal from consortiums led by Qube Holdings and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners.The generous takeover was unsurprisingly approved by Asciano shareholders. It remains contingent on ACCC and Foreign Investment Review Board, or FIRB, approval. The ACCC's final decision is expected on 21 July, though further delays are possible in this complex and sensitive transaction. The FIRB is unlikely to drag its heels once the ACCC's decision is known. We continue to think the takeover is likely to succeed, however, risk-averse investors may want to sell on market to lock in gains given failure of the takeover would see the share price fall hard.Analysts: Adrian Atkins &amp; Carolyn Holmes

Asciano Offloads ACFS Interest to Settle Dispute with JV Partners and Help Alleviate ACCC Concerns

Australia

Qube Holdings Ltd. is a logistics company. The Group operates in divisions covering Automotive, Bulk and General Stevedoring, Landside Logistics and Strategic Development Assets.

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Qube Holdings (QUB AU)

QUBE Holdings - Size Vs Discount Doesn't Provide Much Comfort

Caryle plans to sell its 9.5% stake in Qube Holdings for US$265m/AUD350m. Earlier in the year, Qube had raised round A$500m to finance its purchase...

Sumeet Singh

Retain Defensive Bias as the Reluctant Rate Cutter Likely to Deliver More Stimulus

Interbank Cash Rate Futures point to a 65% probability that the RBA will cut the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 1.5% on...

Sam Ferraro

Antitrust Investigation Duration Near Record Levels; Merger Litigation Taking Longer, Too

Significant merger investigations during the first half of 2016 lasted 9.5 months on average—on par with CY2015, but more than 30 percent longer...

Dechert LLP

Australia a Risk Haven? Not Today, Mate

Speculation that Australia will lose its AAA rating due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by the final downgrade to...

Naomi Fink

Asciano Offloads ACFS Interest to Settle Dispute with JV Partners and Help Alleviate ACCC Concerns

Asciano has cleared a legal impediment to its takeover by resolving its dispute with its joint venture partners in trucking company ACFS, and in...

Morningstar, Inc.

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