Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-h1-bank-earnings-interest-fees-up-expenses-credit-costs-down-opportunity-abounds-still" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116534" rel="noopener">Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still</a> last week mentioning the trends in guidance revisions.</li>
<li>Since then, five have reported H1. +20%, +53%, +23% vs guidance; +25.6%, and +28.2% vs Last Year. Eight more have added new guidance, weighted average H1 up 48%. </li>
<li>Four more report tomorrow, eight on Thurs, 43 on Friday. The Top 5 are all next Mon/Tues. Watch for comments about portfolio restructuring efforts in H2 as market yields rise.</li>
</ul>


I wrote Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still last week mentioning the trends in guidance revisions.
Since then, five have reported H1. +20%, +53%, +23% vs guidance; +25.6%, and +28.2% vs Last Year. Eight more have added new guidance, weighted average H1 up 48%. 
Four more report tomorrow, eight on Thurs, 43 on Friday. The Top 5 are all next Mon/Tues. Watch for comments about portfolio restructuring efforts in H2 as market yields rise.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Last Minute Update; Suruga Bank Reacts Well

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> deal is good for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial (8411 JP)</a>; bad for Bank shareholders. The favouritism is cleanly visible. This is a takeunder.</li>
<li>CSRC has approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a>'s A-share listing of its renewable energy unit. Even assigning a large holding company discount, there is material upside to CRP's share price.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> has a possible merger/arrangement on power semiconductors with Toshiba Storage and Device, and also with Mitsubishi Electric. That would be big.</li>
</ul>


The Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) deal is good for Rakuten (4755 JP) and Mizuho Financial (8411 JP); bad for Bank shareholders. The favouritism is cleanly visible. This is a takeunder.
CSRC has approved China Resources Power (836 HK)'s A-share listing of its renewable energy unit. Even assigning a large holding company discount, there is material upside to CRP's share price.

ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) has a possible merger/arrangement on power semiconductors with Toshiba Storage and Device, and also with Mitsubishi Electric. That would be big.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Rakuten Bank/ Rakuten, China Resources Power, ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)

<ul>
<li>Today post-close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> announced the Fintech Restructuring. "Fintech" is a stretch. It's an e-bank and an e-broker with a credit card company.</li>
<li>There are likely a lot of synergies, but this may be a bad deal for Rakuten Bank shareholders. They are paying much more for the synergies than the others are.</li>
<li>Rakuten Bank contributes 55.4% of the last four quarters of NEWCO OP, but get only 43% of the shares in NEWCO. Securities+Card OP is 30% "stronger" than Bank OP.</li>
</ul>


Today post-close, Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) and Rakuten (4755 JP) announced the Fintech Restructuring. "Fintech" is a stretch. It's an e-bank and an e-broker with a credit card company.
There are likely a lot of synergies, but this may be a bad deal for Rakuten Bank shareholders. They are paying much more for the synergies than the others are.
Rakuten Bank contributes 55.4% of the last four quarters of NEWCO OP, but get only 43% of the shares in NEWCO. Securities+Card OP is 30% "stronger" than Bank OP.


[Japan Event] Rakuten Fintech Group Restructuring - Dirty Deeds Done Unto Rakuten Bank (5838)

<ul>
<li>A weekend <a href="https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/economy/20260516-GYT1T00330/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> suggested <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> might invest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> when a Rakuten Financial Group is formed. They own 14.99% of Rakuten Card. </li>
<li>The story suggested Mizuho would swap that stake for a stake in Rakuten Bank. Mizuho Securities (which eclipsed Daiwa Securities last year) would keep its 49% stake in Rakuten Securities.</li>
<li>This un-complicates things slightly, and suggests earlier analysis was roughly right. Rakuten Bank jumped 10%. It's up again today. Expect a decision on Rakuten FG this month.</li>
</ul>


A weekend report suggested Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) might invest in Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) when a Rakuten Financial Group is formed. They own 14.99% of Rakuten Card. 
The story suggested Mizuho would swap that stake for a stake in Rakuten Bank. Mizuho Securities (which eclipsed Daiwa Securities last year) would keep its 49% stake in Rakuten Securities.
This un-complicates things slightly, and suggests earlier analysis was roughly right. Rakuten Bank jumped 10%. It's up again today. Expect a decision on Rakuten FG this month.


[Japan Event] Rakuten Bank (5838) - "Exciting" Mizuho News Doesn't Do Much But Expect More News Soon

<ul>
<li>On 1 April 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> and Rakuten would start talks aimed at creating a Fintech Group. I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/if-rakuten-4755-combines-financial-units-who-wins-and-how-well-it-s-complicated" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this</a>. Talks halted 6mos later.</li>
<li>Back then, word was Bank was dissatisfied with the ratios. As of 25 Feb 2026, they are starting talks again as Rakuten Group sees greater bank competition as rates rise.</li>
<li>It's a complicated structure but worth it for Rakuten Bank. Rakuten Bank customer and deposit growth continues higher than the bank industry as a whole. Deposit beta is a question.</li>
</ul>


On 1 April 2024, Rakuten (4755 JP) announced Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) and Rakuten would start talks aimed at creating a Fintech Group. I wrote this. Talks halted 6mos later.
Back then, word was Bank was dissatisfied with the ratios. As of 25 Feb 2026, they are starting talks again as Rakuten Group sees greater bank competition as rates rise.
It's a complicated structure but worth it for Rakuten Bank. Rakuten Bank customer and deposit growth continues higher than the bank industry as a whole. Deposit beta is a question.


[Japan Event] Rakuten Bank (5838) - New Fintech Holding Would Be Positive IF Done Right

Japan

Rakuten Bank, Ltd. operates as an Internet based bank. The Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, exchange transactions, and other services. Rakuten Bank also provides financial services including investment trusts, securities, credit and cash cards, lottery tickets, and others.

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Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)

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[Japan Event] Rakuten Bank (5838) - "Exciting" Mizuho News Doesn't Do Much But Expect More News Soon

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[Japan Event] Rakuten Bank (5838) - New Fintech Holding Would Be Positive IF Done Right

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