IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enm-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16267:1" rel="noopener">ENM Holdings (128 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mason-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17664:1" rel="noopener">Mason Group Holdings (273 HK)</a>, Costa Group.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kenedix-retail-reit-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:188:1" rel="noopener">Kenedix Retail REIT (3453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), ENM Holdings (128 HK), Eoflow (294090 KS), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), Costa Group.
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS), Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP), Kenedix Retail REIT (3453 JP), Penguin International (PBS SP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (21 Aug) - Costa, OreCorp, Sanei, T&K Toka, Celltrion, Eoflow, Golden Eagle

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.</li>
<li>The September changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.</li>
<li>For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.
The September changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.
For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

<ul>
<li>We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.</li>
<li>There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.
There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I expect one change for ASX 100 and 3 ADDs and 4 DELs for ASX 200. There could be 11 ADDs and 9 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>ASX 300 member Leo Lithium (LLL AU) is currently suspended from trading and that could have interesting implications for the stock's ASX 300 membership.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the September 2023 Rebalance.
I expect one change for ASX 100 and 3 ADDs and 4 DELs for ASX 200. There could be 11 ADDs and 9 DELs for ASX 300.
ASX 300 member Leo Lithium (LLL AU) is currently suspended from trading and that could have interesting implications for the stock's ASX 300 membership.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Potential Surprises and Final Thoughts

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a> has entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc-139c2b2c-b1be-4cd9-92d7-257aca9924c9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38823:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp Metals (SVM US)</a> at A$0.15 cash and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share, a 31.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices. However, the offer is light in comparison to peer multiples. </li>
<li>The bid could spur <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>, a rumoured suitor, to show its hand. At the last close, the gross spread of the offer is 19.1%.</li>
</ul>



Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) has entered a SID with Silvercorp Metals (SVM US) at A$0.15 cash and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share, a 31.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices. However, the offer is light in comparison to peer multiples. 
The bid could spur Perseus Mining (PRU AU), a rumoured suitor, to show its hand. At the last close, the gross spread of the offer is 19.1%.


OreCorp (ORR AU): Silvercorp’s Binding Proposal

Australia

Ramelius Resources Limited is a gold exploration and production company with exploration activities focused in Western Australia.  The Company also explores for base metals.

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Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Aug) - Costa, OreCorp, Sanei, T&K Toka, Celltrion, Eoflow, Golden Eagle

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (24.9%), Symbio (14.8%), ENM (11.5%), Eoflow (11.1%), Orecorp (9.3%), Mason (9.0%), Costa (7.6%), Poly...

Arun George

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50, ASX100, ASX 200 and ASX300 indices at the September rebalance. There is big flow and impact on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Potential Surprises and Final Thoughts

I expect ASX 200 and 300 Expected ADDs to outperform the ASX 200 and 300 Expected DELs over the next few weeks since there are many names on both...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

OreCorp (ORR AU): Silvercorp’s Binding Proposal

The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices but light compared to peer multiples. The bid could spur...

Arun George

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Merger Arb Mondays (21 Aug) - Costa, OreCorp, Sanei, T&K Toka, Celltrion, Eoflow, Golden Eagle

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (24.9%), Symbio (14.8%), ENM (11.5%), Eoflow (11.1%), Orecorp (9.3%), Mason (9.0%), Costa (7.6%), Poly...

Arun George

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50, ASX100, ASX 200 and ASX300 indices at the September rebalance. There is big flow and impact on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Potential Surprises and Final Thoughts

I expect ASX 200 and 300 Expected ADDs to outperform the ASX 200 and 300 Expected DELs over the next few weeks since there are many names on both...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

OreCorp (ORR AU): Silvercorp’s Binding Proposal

The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices but light compared to peer multiples. The bid could spur...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed