IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mason-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17664:1" rel="noopener">Mason Group Holdings (273 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU), Eoflow (294090 KS), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), Origin Energy (ORG AU). 
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (11 Sep) - Eoflow, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, United Malt, OreCorp, MPI

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is one add, one delete, one listing change, plus float and capping changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.1% and that results in a one-way trade of US$240m. There are 31 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There will be some same way and some opposite flows between the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51)</a> trackers at the close on 15 September.</li>
</ul>


There is one add, one delete, one listing change, plus float and capping changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.1% and that results in a one-way trade of US$240m. There are 31 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
There will be some same way and some opposite flows between the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51) trackers at the close on 15 September.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete, Float, Capping = Big Impact

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that are constituents of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices and could go private or merge prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.</li>
<li>That will lead to ad hoc inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and could also lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 and S&amp;P/ASX 100 indices.</li>
<li>There is a fair amount of short interest on some of the potential inclusions and short covering due to index inclusion could take the stocks higher.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that are constituents of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices and could go private or merge prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.
That will lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and could also lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 and S&amp;P/ASX 100 indices.
There is a fair amount of short interest on some of the potential inclusions and short covering due to index inclusion could take the stocks higher.


Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 5 adds/ 6 deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a>, and 10 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be 4-14 days of ADV to trade on the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> adds while the impact on the deletions is between 3-12 days of ADV.</li>
<li>On average, the adds to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index have outperformed the deletes over the last few months.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 5 adds/ 6 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX, and 10 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
There will be 4-14 days of ADV to trade on the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX adds while the impact on the deletions is between 3-12 days of ADV.
On average, the adds to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index have outperformed the deletes over the last few months.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2023): Mostly Expected with a Few Surprises

Australia

Ramelius Resources Limited is a gold exploration and production company with exploration activities focused in Western Australia.  The Company also explores for base metals.

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Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

Merger Arb Mondays (11 Sep) - Eoflow, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, United Malt, OreCorp, MPI

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (39.7%), Costa (22.8%), Eoflow (18.3%), Symbio (17.3%), Mason (9.0%), Origin Energy (8.1%), JSR...

Arun George

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete, Float, Capping = Big Impact

There is 1 add and 1 delete for the GDXJ in September. Float + capping changes result in a one-way trade of US$240m. There will be some same-way...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

There are 5 companies that are members of the S&P/ASX indices and could be delisted prior to the next rebalance in December. That could mean ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2023): Mostly Expected with a Few Surprises

There are 30 changes for the SP/ASX index family in Sep. Most of the changes were expected but there are a few surprises. There is a lot to trade...

Brian Freitas

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Merger Arb Mondays (11 Sep) - Eoflow, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, United Malt, OreCorp, MPI

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (39.7%), Costa (22.8%), Eoflow (18.3%), Symbio (17.3%), Mason (9.0%), Origin Energy (8.1%), JSR...

Arun George

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete, Float, Capping = Big Impact

There is 1 add and 1 delete for the GDXJ in September. Float + capping changes result in a one-way trade of US$240m. There will be some same-way...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

There are 5 companies that are members of the S&P/ASX indices and could be delisted prior to the next rebalance in December. That could mean ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2023): Mostly Expected with a Few Surprises

There are 30 changes for the SP/ASX index family in Sep. Most of the changes were expected but there are a few surprises. There is a lot to trade...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2023): Mostly Expected with a Few Surprises