IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc-139c2b2c-b1be-4cd9-92d7-257aca9924c9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38823:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp Metals (SVM US)</a>’s A$0.15 cash per share and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share offer fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The offer is subject to the Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission and shareholder approval. The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices.</li>
<li>While the offer has suffered from the steep SVM share price decline, there has been no visible dissent from major shareholders. At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%. </li>
</ul>


The Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) IE considers Silvercorp Metals (SVM US)’s A$0.15 cash per share and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share offer fair and reasonable. 
The offer is subject to the Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission and shareholder approval. The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices.
While the offer has suffered from the steep SVM share price decline, there has been no visible dissent from major shareholders. At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%. 


OreCorp (ORR AU): A Wide Spread Heading into the 8 December Vote

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Shareholders have approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>'s acquisition by TPG and IVC is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> will be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 3 November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a> misses out this time but should be added to the index late November or at the regular rebalance in December.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders have approved Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)'s acquisition by TPG and IVC is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November.

Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) will be replaced by Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 3 November.

Boss Resources (BOE AU) misses out this time but should be added to the index late November or at the regular rebalance in December.


S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Emerald Resources (EMR) To Replace Invocare (IVC)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a> has disclosed a conditional proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhaojin-mining-industry-company-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4626:1" rel="noopener">Zhaojin Mining Industry H (1818 HK)</a> at A$0.58 per share, a 36.5% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.425.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on China and Cote d’Ivoire regulatory approvals (should be forthcoming) and a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition (which can be waived).</li>
<li>The offer is light compared to peer resource multiples and recent share prices. The presence of large Chinese shareholders is a stumbling block for a rival offer. </li>
</ul>



Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU) has disclosed a conditional proposal from Zhaojin Mining Industry H (1818 HK) at A$0.58 per share, a 36.5% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.425.
The offer is conditional on China and Cote d’Ivoire regulatory approvals (should be forthcoming) and a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition (which can be waived).
The offer is light compared to peer resource multiples and recent share prices. The presence of large Chinese shareholders is a stumbling block for a rival offer. 


Tietto Minerals (TIE AU): Zhaojin’s Conditional Off-Market Takeover Offer

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">REMX US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">GDXJ US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">MVA AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">MVW AU</a> and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.</li>
<li>Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, REMX US, GDXJ US, MVA AU, MVW AU and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.
There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.
Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.


Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mason-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17664:1" rel="noopener">Mason Group Holdings (273 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU), Eoflow (294090 KS), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), Origin Energy (ORG AU). 
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (11 Sep) - Eoflow, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, United Malt, OreCorp, MPI

Australia

Ramelius Resources Limited is a gold exploration and production company with exploration activities focused in Western Australia.  The Company also explores for base metals.

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Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

OreCorp (ORR AU): A Wide Spread Heading into the 8 December Vote

While the offer has suffered from the steep SVM share price decline, there has been no visible dissent from major shareholders.

Arun George

S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Emerald Resources (EMR) To Replace Invocare (IVC)

Emerald Resources replaces Invocare in the ASX200 at the close on 3 Nov. Boss Energy misses out but could be in the index in the next 6 weeks. The...

Brian Freitas

Tietto Minerals (TIE AU): Zhaojin’s Conditional Off-Market Takeover Offer

The offer is light compared to peer resource multiples and recent share prices. The offer is conditional on regulatory approvals and a 50.1%...

Arun George

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (11 Sep) - Eoflow, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, United Malt, OreCorp, MPI

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (39.7%), Costa (22.8%), Eoflow (18.3%), Symbio (17.3%), Mason (9.0%), Origin Energy (8.1%), JSR...

Arun George

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