Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of August, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8.5bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was ~41%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of August, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8.5bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was ~41%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dongzheng-automotive-finance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27984:1" rel="noopener">Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excelpoint-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1774:1" rel="noopener">Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mydeal-com-au-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30939:1" rel="noopener">MyDeal.com.au Ltd (MYD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vast-industrial-urban-development-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3212:1" rel="noopener">China Vast Industrial Urban Development (6166 HK)</a> </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU), True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB).
Lowest spreads MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP), MyDeal.com.au Ltd (MYD AU), China Vast Industrial Urban Development (6166 HK) 


Merger Arb Mondays (29 Aug) - Ramsay, DTAC/True, Pendal, Link Admin, Ramsay, Infomedia, ResApp, MACA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> disclosed that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)</a> consortium withdrew its indicative proposal but remains committed to the alternative proposal, which the Board earlier rejected. </li>
<li>The alternative proposal, while inferior to the indicative proposal, is still attractive and better than the status quo of no deal. The Board will engage for an improved offer. </li>
<li>The value gap between the parties is not huge, and a deal is possible. The upside (20% to alternative proposal) vs downside (-9% to undisturbed price) is worth a punt. </li>
</ul>



Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) disclosed that the KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US) consortium withdrew its indicative proposal but remains committed to the alternative proposal, which the Board earlier rejected. 
The alternative proposal, while inferior to the indicative proposal, is still attractive and better than the status quo of no deal. The Board will engage for an improved offer. 
The value gap between the parties is not huge, and a deal is possible. The upside (20% to alternative proposal) vs downside (-9% to undisturbed price) is worth a punt. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, China Tourism's listing appears to have set the ball rolling for others to follow.</li>
<li>After a flurry of activity in the prior week, there weren't any major placements this week.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, China Tourism's listing appears to have set the ball rolling for others to follow.
After a flurry of activity in the prior week, there weren't any major placements this week.


ECM Weekly (28th Aug 2022) - China Tourism, BA REIT, Hongjiu Fruit, YH Ent, Biocyto, WM, APM, Daiwa

<ul>
<li>Based on an admittedly somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of probability of privatisation,  shorting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> here against its Peer Basket is probably not a good outcome.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> has started buying back with 3.5x the average ADV impact on Bs vs As. That is likely to continue. </li>
<li>KKR's all cash A$88/share Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health (RHC AU)</a> is off. The alternative Offer has a lower implied value, and has been unceremoniously rejected, despite Ramsay's horrible FY22 numbers.</li>
</ul>


Based on an admittedly somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of probability of privatisation,  shorting Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) here against its Peer Basket is probably not a good outcome.

Swire Pacific (19 HK) has started buying back with 3.5x the average ADV impact on Bs vs As. That is likely to continue. 
KKR's all cash A$88/share Offer for Ramsay Health (RHC AU) is off. The alternative Offer has a lower implied value, and has been unceremoniously rejected, despite Ramsay's horrible FY22 numbers.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire Pacific, Ramsay Health, Pendal, Intouch

Australia

Ramsay Health Care Ltd. provides health care services. The Company offers private hospital services, including, rehabilitation, psychiatric care, day, and complex surgery. Ramsay Health Care owns, operates, and manages health care facilities throughout Australia, Indonesia, and Europe.

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Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A: August 2022 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was ~41%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (29 Aug) - Ramsay, DTAC/True, Pendal, Link Admin, Ramsay, Infomedia, ResApp, MACA

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (54.7%), Alliance Aviation (33.8%), Infomedia (22.3%), Ramsay (20.9%), ResApp (12.4%), True (10.7%),...

Arun George

Ramsay and KKR’s Game of Cat and Mouse

The value gap between the parties is not huge, and a deal remains possible. The upside (20% to the alternative proposal) vs downside (-9% to...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (28th Aug 2022) - China Tourism, BA REIT, Hongjiu Fruit, YH Ent, Biocyto, WM, APM, Daiwa

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire Pacific, Ramsay Health, Pendal, Intouch

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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