Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a>, it seemed appropriate to revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group (53 HK)</a>. Just as well - it is totally bombed out. </li>
<li>I see Guoco's implied stub - net of GuocoLand, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-leong-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6602:1" rel="noopener">Hong Leong Financial (HLFG MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rank-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22117:1" rel="noopener">Rank Group (RNK LN)</a> - at a decade low.</li>
<li>It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family reloaded an Offer for Guoco. Which subsequently failed. Time for the family to step up. Again.</li>
</ul>


After GuocoLand (GUOL SP)'s Offer for Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK), it seemed appropriate to revisit Guoco Group (53 HK). Just as well - it is totally bombed out. 
I see Guoco's implied stub - net of GuocoLand, Hong Leong Financial (HLFG MK), Bank of East Asia (23 HK), and Rank Group (RNK LN) - at a decade low.
It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family reloaded an Offer for Guoco. Which subsequently failed. Time for the family to step up. Again.


Guoco (53 HK): Now Even A Deeper Value Play

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2026 rebal.</li>
<li>We currently expect one F100 change and two F250 changes for the December 2026 rebal. An IPO drives the F100 change, while one F250 change depends on a market transfer.</li>
<li>We also expect one intra-review change for the F250 prior to the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2026 rebal.
We currently expect one F100 change and two F250 changes for the December 2026 rebal. An IPO drives the F100 change, while one F250 change depends on a market transfer.
We also expect one intra-review change for the F250 prior to the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec26: Airtel Money IPO and Serica Transfer in Focus

<ul>
<li>I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a>'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. </li>
<li>~67%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a> (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a> at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". </li>
<li>It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.</li>
</ul>


I see Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. 
~67%-Held GuocoLand (GUOL SP) (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK) at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". 
It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.


Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

<ul>
<li>Investors see value in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.</li>
<li>It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a>'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a>'s divergence with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?</li>
</ul>


Investors see value in Toyota Industries (6201 JP). Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.
It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn CKH (1 HK)'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.

Melco International Development (200 HK)'s divergence with Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?


Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index prior to the June 2025 review and then one more shortly after the rebal event.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be four regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index prior to the June 2025 review and then one more shortly after the rebal event.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be four regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: LONGs up +6% Vs Index; Multiple Intra-Review Changes Soon

United Kingdom

Rank Group Plc is a leading European gaming, leisure, and entertainment group operating through venues and online channels. The company's primary activities include operating casinos (Grosvenor Casinos), community gaming venues (Mecca Bingo and Enracha), and digital gaming platforms. It offers a variety of casino table games, electronic roulette, gaming machines, bingo, and sports betting services. The company is headquartered in Maidenhead, Berkshire, UK, and was founded in 1937.

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Rank Group (RNK LN)

Guoco (53 HK): Now Even A Deeper Value Play

I like Guoco here either as a potential privatisation play, or simply as a deep value play. I see the implied stub - net of all the key listcos -...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec26: Airtel Money IPO and Serica Transfer in Focus

Airtel Money could become a strong name for the F100 inclusion in December 2026. We also see Serica Energy as an F250 ADD if it transfers to the...

Afridi Reyal

Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

Guoco remains a potential privatisation play; and/or a deep value play. I see the implied stub - net of the key listcos - around a decade low. The...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: LONGs up +6% Vs Index; Multiple Intra-Review Changes Soon

Our final expectations for the F100/250 Jun25 review have been added in a discussion point below. The changes will be confirmed after LSE market...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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