Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>US CPI marked at +7.7% YoY in Oct. vs. the consensus estimate at +7.9% YoY, while the services CPI slowed to +0.3% MoM from +0.5% MoM in Sep.</li><li>The property sector has reported good earnings growth at 110.1% YoY and 13.1% QoQ due to the pickup of transfers ahead of interest rate hikes.</li><li>The SET Index is expected to gain further this week and test the resistance at 1,649 points due to easing concerns over Fed rate hikes.</li></ul>

US CPI marked at +7.7% YoY in Oct. vs. the consensus estimate at +7.9% YoY, while the services CPI slowed to +0.3% MoM from +0.5% MoM in Sep.The property sector has reported good earnings growth at 110.1% YoY and 13.1% QoQ due to the pickup of transfers ahead of interest rate hikes.The SET Index is expected to gain further this week and test the resistance at 1,649 points due to easing concerns over Fed rate hikes.

SET Index to Test 1,649 Points on Easing Concerns Over Fed Rate Hikes

<ul><li>We expect the SET Index to move sideways, with the support at 1,580/1,550 points and resistance at 1,627/1,660 points.</li><li>For long-term investment, we recommend accumulating reopening plays and high dividend plays.</li><li>Short-term factors affecting the SET in November include reports of 3Q22 GDP, central bank meetings (FOMC, BoE and the MPC), global summits (G-20, APEC), the results of the US midterm election (November 8), and earnings results.</li></ul>

We expect the SET Index to move sideways, with the support at 1,580/1,550 points and resistance at 1,627/1,660 points.For long-term investment, we recommend accumulating reopening plays and high dividend plays.Short-term factors affecting the SET in November include reports of 3Q22 GDP, central bank meetings (FOMC, BoE and the MPC), global summits (G-20, APEC), the results of the US midterm election (November 8), and earnings results.

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>CGS: 3Q21 Road Show</h2><ul>
<li><h3>Performance review of CGS‘s stock picks</h3></li>
<li><h3>CGS Strategy</h3></li>
<li>
<h3>Our stock picks for 3Q21</h3>
<ul><li><ul>
<li>
<strong>KBANK</strong>:  Most benefit amongst big banks post-COVID recovery</li>
<li>
<strong>EPG</strong>: Global-standard polymer converter assured of sustainable growth</li>
<li>
<strong><strong>CKP:</strong></strong> Positive 2021-22 outlook from the better hydro operation</li>
</ul></li></ul>
</li>
<li>
<h3>Power sector</h3>
<ul><li><ul>
<li>
<strong>RATCH</strong>: Stable earnings outlook and a high dividend yield</li>
<li>
<strong>GULF</strong>: Earning growth and upside from INTUCH investment</li>
</ul></li></ul>
</li>
</ul>

CGS: 3Q21 Road Show
Performance review of CGS‘s stock picks
CGS Strategy

Our stock picks for 3Q21


KBANK:  Most benefit amongst big banks post-COVID recovery

EPG: Global-standard polymer converter assured of sustainable growth

CKP: Positive 2021-22 outlook from the better hydro operation



Power sector


RATCH: Stable earnings outlook and a high dividend yield

GULF: Earning growth and upside from INTUCH investment




<p><strong>BCPG, GUNKUL, GULF top pick growth stocks</strong></p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Earnings upcycle in 2021:</strong> We expect BCPG, GULF and GUNKUL to achieve 15 to 30% net profit growth during 2021 on the back 12 to 30% power generation capacity expansion in 2020-21 period.</li>
<li>
<strong>Declining gas price to support SPP performance:</strong> The industrial user power sales of SPP players BGRIM, GPSC and GULF (accounting 10 to 20% of the revenue) has rebound to pre – COVID 19 levels as of 4Q20.  We expect the declining gas cost (-10% YoY) will help in revamping the GPM and support the sector performance.</li>
</ul><p><strong>EGCO, RATCH top pick value stocks</strong></p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Cheap valuation:</strong> The stock price of EGCO and RATCH faced 70% and 30% fall in 2020 respectively. The stocks are trading very cheap at 9 to 13x PE’21E and having the companies already overcome the COVID-19 impact we believe the price correction has created an investment opportunity.</li>
<li>
<strong>Decent dividend yield:</strong> We expect RATCH and EGCO to pay a decent dividend yield of 3.3 to 4.4% in 2021.</li>
</ul><p><strong>Maintain HOLD rating on BGRIM, EA and GPSC</strong></p><ul><li>We have a positive view on BGRIM and GPSC as the SPP players will benefit from declining gas price. However, due to limit upside from current share price we maintain the HOLD rating. We recommend to HOLD EA, as the stock performance will depend on new EV-ESS business success and valuation demands.</li></ul>

BCPG, GUNKUL, GULF top pick growth stocks

Earnings upcycle in 2021: We expect BCPG, GULF and GUNKUL to achieve 15 to 30% net profit growth during 2021 on the back 12 to 30% power generation capacity expansion in 2020-21 period.

Declining gas price to support SPP performance: The industrial user power sales of SPP players BGRIM, GPSC and GULF (accounting 10 to 20% of the revenue) has rebound to pre – COVID 19 levels as of 4Q20.  We expect the declining gas cost (-10% YoY) will help in revamping the GPM and support the sector performance.
EGCO, RATCH top pick value stocks

Cheap valuation: The stock price of EGCO and RATCH faced 70% and 30% fall in 2020 respectively. The stocks are trading very cheap at 9 to 13x PE’21E and having the companies already overcome the COVID-19 impact we believe the price correction has created an investment opportunity.

Decent dividend yield: We expect RATCH and EGCO to pay a decent dividend yield of 3.3 to 4.4% in 2021.
Maintain HOLD rating on BGRIM, EA and GPSCWe have a positive view on BGRIM and GPSC as the SPP players will benefit from declining gas price. However, due to limit upside from current share price we maintain the HOLD rating. We recommend to HOLD EA, as the stock performance will depend on new EV-ESS business success and valuation demands.

Thailand Power Sector: Overweight-Bright 2021 Performance

<ul><li>Thailand's gas liberalization (under EPPO's review, likely to be concrete in 2H20E) will allow for new LNG shippers, benefiting the country in terms of cost savings and lower electricity tariffs due to competitive LNG prices.</li><li>Liberalization will also be a boon to SPPs' margins for power sales to industrial users, with the expectation of slight to moderate momentum for GULF and BGRIM's earnings, respectively, in the years ahead.</li><li>Meanwhile, we expect PTT's market share in gas sales to be threatened in the long run, but with limited downside to its consolidated earnings.</li></ul>

Thailand's gas liberalization (under EPPO's review, likely to be concrete in 2H20E) will allow for new LNG shippers, benefiting the country in terms of cost savings and lower electricity tariffs due to competitive LNG prices.Liberalization will also be a boon to SPPs' margins for power sales to industrial users, with the expectation of slight to moderate momentum for GULF and BGRIM's earnings, respectively, in the years ahead.Meanwhile, we expect PTT's market share in gas sales to be threatened in the long run, but with limited downside to its consolidated earnings.

Development of Thailand's Gas Liberalization

Thailand

Ratch Group is a leading investment holding company primarily focused on electricity generation and energy businesses. The company's portfolio includes fossil-fuel-based, renewable energy, and battery energy storage projects across Thailand, ASEAN, and Australia. It also invests in infrastructure and electricity-related businesses, such as maintenance and operation services, fuel supply, and energy innovation. Headquartered in Nonthaburi, Thailand, the company was established on March 7, 2000.

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Ratch Group (RATCH TB)

SET Index to Test 1,649 Points on Easing Concerns Over Fed Rate Hikes

US CPI marked at +7.7% YoY in Oct. vs. the consensus estimate at +7.9% YoY, while the services CPI slowed to +0.3% MoM from +0.5% MoM in Sep. The...

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: November 2022

We expect the SET Index to move sideways, with the support at 1,580/1,550 points and resistance at 1,627/1,660 points. For long-term investment,...

Krungthai XSpring

3Q21 Road Show

CGS's roadshow : Performance review of CGS ‘s stock picks, CGS Strategy, Our stock picks for 3Q21, Power sector outlook 3Q21

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Thailand Power Sector: Overweight-Bright 2021 Performance

Power Sector: Overweight-Bright 2021 sector performance. BCPG, GUNKUL, GULF top pick growth stocks. EGCO, RATCH top pick value stocks

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Development of Thailand's Gas Liberalization

Thailand's gas liberalization (under EPPO's review, likely to be concrete in 2H20E) will allow for new LNG shippers, benefiting the country in...

Krungthai XSpring

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