Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat from the previous period.</li><li>These rates align with the Case 3 scenario, representing the lowest figures, and are in line with our 2024E projections, supported by the declining trend in gas costs, including lower LNG prices and increased G1/61 gas volume.</li><li>The decision is expected to facilitate effective management of electricity tariffs and enhance the opportunities and continuity for EGAT's reclamation of the Ft subsidy, which is nearing Bt100bn. </li></ul>

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat from the previous period.These rates align with the Case 3 scenario, representing the lowest figures, and are in line with our 2024E projections, supported by the declining trend in gas costs, including lower LNG prices and increased G1/61 gas volume.The decision is expected to facilitate effective management of electricity tariffs and enhance the opportunities and continuity for EGAT's reclamation of the Ft subsidy, which is nearing Bt100bn. 

Energy (Power) - Flat Electricity Tariff and Ft for May to August

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt55.0. The 3Q22 net profit improved 56% YoY and 2% QoQ to Bt2.2bn,which came out in line with our expectations. </li>
<li>Positive 3Q22 results RATCH’s 3Q22 net profit came in line with our expectations at Bt2.2bn, which strongly increased 56% YoY (+2% QoQ).</li>
<li>Excluding one-time gains, the recurring profit stood at Bt2.1bn (+56% YoY, +10% QoQ).  The YoY growth was driven by improved contribution from IPPs. While the QoQ growth </li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt55.0. The 3Q22 net profit improved 56% YoY and 2% QoQ to Bt2.2bn,which came out in line with our expectations. 
Positive 3Q22 results RATCH’s 3Q22 net profit came in line with our expectations at Bt2.2bn, which strongly increased 56% YoY (+2% QoQ).
Excluding one-time gains, the recurring profit stood at Bt2.1bn (+56% YoY, +10% QoQ).  The YoY growth was driven by improved contribution from IPPs. While the QoQ growth 


<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY call and raise TP by 15% to Bt55 (DCF, implying 11xPE’23E) due to our DCF upward revision to factor in the new 1.5GW capacity expansion </li>
<li>Positive 3Q22Outlook We expect RATCH’s earnings to be the peak quarter of the year in 3Q22 supported by full quarter contribution from 45MWe NER Power Plant in Rayong and COD </li>
<li>The earnings should decline QoQ in 4Q22 due to seasonal weak domestic demand and higher SG&amp;A expenses. While, YoY earnings growth will be supported 190MWe capacity added during 4Q21to3Q22 period.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY call and raise TP by 15% to Bt55 (DCF, implying 11xPE’23E) due to our DCF upward revision to factor in the new 1.5GW capacity expansion 
Positive 3Q22Outlook We expect RATCH’s earnings to be the peak quarter of the year in 3Q22 supported by full quarter contribution from 45MWe NER Power Plant in Rayong and COD 
The earnings should decline QoQ in 4Q22 due to seasonal weak domestic demand and higher SG&amp;A expenses. While, YoY earnings growth will be supported 190MWe capacity added during 4Q21to3Q22 period.


RATCH : Robust Growth Outlook After Capital Increase

<ul>
<li>Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.</li>
<li>The 2Q22 earnings is expected to improve QoQ from1 higher share of profit from HPC, 2)equity income from new 145MWe  gas PP COD in 1Q22.While full quarter profit from 476M </li>
<li>We see the 2022-25 outlook promising,considering 1)Steady earnings growth supported by 28% PP operating capacity expansion and 2)rising RE proportion which will rule out the ESG concerns and support rerating</li>
</ul>


Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.
The 2Q22 earnings is expected to improve QoQ from1 higher share of profit from HPC, 2)equity income from new 145MWe  gas PP COD in 1Q22.While full quarter profit from 476M 
We see the 2022-25 outlook promising,considering 1)Steady earnings growth supported by 28% PP operating capacity expansion and 2)rising RE proportion which will rule out the ESG concerns and support rerating


RATCH: New Capacity Addition Would Offset EPS Dilution

<ul>
<li>Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.</li>
<li>The 1Q22 earnings is expected to soften QoQ due to seasonal weak contribution from Hydro projects, RAC (Australia), and weak domestic SPP margins. The earnings should pick up 2Q22 onwards</li>
<li>The 2022 net profit growth will be supported by 1)full year profit recognition of 377MWe projects added in 2021 (Yandin&amp;collector wind farm) and 2) 150MWe new project COD in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.
The 1Q22 earnings is expected to soften QoQ due to seasonal weak contribution from Hydro projects, RAC (Australia), and weak domestic SPP margins. The earnings should pick up 2Q22 onwards
The 2022 net profit growth will be supported by 1)full year profit recognition of 377MWe projects added in 2021 (Yandin&amp;collector wind farm) and 2) 150MWe new project COD in 2022.


RATCH: Minor Dilution Impact from Capital Raising

Thailand

Ratch Group PCL operates as a power producer company. The Company focuses on investment fossil fuel power generation and renewable projects, as well as businesses adjacent to electricity generation and energy. Ratchaburi Group serves customers in Asia.

Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)

Energy (Power) - Flat Electricity Tariff and Ft for May to August

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat...

Krungthai XSpring

RATCH : Robust Growth Outlook in 2023

We maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt55.0. The 3Q22 net profit improved 56% YoY and 2% QoQ to Bt2.2bn, which came out in line with our...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

RATCH : Robust Growth Outlook After Capital Increase

We maintain our BUY call and raise TP by 15% to Bt55 (DCF, implying 11xPE’23E) due to our DCF upward revision to factor in the new 1.5GW capacity...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

RATCH: New Capacity Addition Would Offset EPS Dilution

Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology,...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

RATCH: Minor Dilution Impact from Capital Raising

Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology,...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand