Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.</li>
<li>Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.</li>
<li>With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.</li>
</ul>


The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.
Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.
With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.


EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Apple down hitting suppliers, with ARM and Qualcomm spat taking both lower. Watch Softbank for weakness.</li>
<li>Tesla earnings smashing it out of the park, will help buoy EV related including Nidec - whose own numbers yesterday were positive.</li>
<li>Texas Instruments +4% on numbers beat should help industrial elec names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec, despite lingering concerns.</li>
</ul>


Apple down hitting suppliers, with ARM and Qualcomm spat taking both lower. Watch Softbank for weakness.
Tesla earnings smashing it out of the park, will help buoy EV related including Nidec - whose own numbers yesterday were positive.
Texas Instruments +4% on numbers beat should help industrial elec names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec, despite lingering concerns.


Japan Morning Connection: Tesla Big Beat and SK Hynix Numbers to Buoy Sentiment

<ul>
<li>New highs for Intuitive Surgical on the success on its Da Vinci surgical robot sets a good tone for Sysmex.</li>
<li>R/E related plays including homebuilders jumping with Blackstone +8% in 2-sessions Thurs/Fri.</li>
<li>Recruit is rapidly running out of buyback bullets, and while it may reload it is priced to perfection and is looking vulnerable to correction.</li>
</ul>


New highs for Intuitive Surgical on the success on its Da Vinci surgical robot sets a good tone for Sysmex.
R/E related plays including homebuilders jumping with Blackstone +8% in 2-sessions Thurs/Fri.
Recruit is rapidly running out of buyback bullets, and while it may reload it is priced to perfection and is looking vulnerable to correction.


Japan Morning Connection: Recruit's 20% ADV Buyback Should Run Out of Bullets Early Nov

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> option implied volatility is stabilizing at an elevated level. This Insight analyses term structure, skew, open interest, and more.</li>
<li>We identify a tactical option opportunity that profits from the current volatility structure.</li>
<li>Are Consumer Price Index and Bank of Japan interest rate decision announcements systematically followed by unusually large market moves? We run the numbers. </li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) option implied volatility is stabilizing at an elevated level. This Insight analyses term structure, skew, open interest, and more.
We identify a tactical option opportunity that profits from the current volatility structure.
Are Consumer Price Index and Bank of Japan interest rate decision announcements systematically followed by unusually large market moves? We run the numbers. 


EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Implied Volatility Analysis - Focus on Bank of Japan Rate Decision Catalyst

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> volatility is trading at historically high levels, and the skew is steep.</li>
<li>National, regional and global catalysts provide the potential for further near-term market turbulence. Downside risk persists.</li>
<li>The current vol environment lends itself to tactical option trades, such as put spreads or risk reversals.</li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility is trading at historically high levels, and the skew is steep.
National, regional and global catalysts provide the potential for further near-term market turbulence. Downside risk persists.
The current vol environment lends itself to tactical option trades, such as put spreads or risk reversals.


EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

Japan

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

Price Gauge
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Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: Tesla Big Beat and SK Hynix Numbers to Buoy Sentiment

Watch Softbank for weakness as ARM and Qualcomm brought lower by spat, Tesla's strong earnings will buoy EV related, Texas Instruments' positive...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Recruit's 20% ADV Buyback Should Run Out of Bullets Early Nov

Intuitive Surgical's success with Da Vinci robot sets good tone for Sysmex; R/E related surge with Blackstone; Recruit's buyback potential may be...

Andrew Jackson

EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Implied Volatility Analysis - Focus on Bank of Japan Rate Decision Catalyst

Nikkei 225 option volatility stabilizes at high level. This Insight identifies a tactical opportunity and analyzes market moves after Bank of...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

​Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: Tesla Big Beat and SK Hynix Numbers to Buoy Sentiment

Watch Softbank for weakness as ARM and Qualcomm brought lower by spat, Tesla's strong earnings will buoy EV related, Texas Instruments' positive...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Recruit's 20% ADV Buyback Should Run Out of Bullets Early Nov

​Intuitive Surgical's success with Da Vinci robot sets good tone for Sysmex; R/E related surge with Blackstone; Recruit's buyback potential may be...

Andrew Jackson

EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Implied Volatility Analysis - Focus on Bank of Japan Rate Decision Catalyst

​Nikkei 225 option volatility stabilizes at high level. This Insight identifies a tactical opportunity and analyzes market moves after Bank of...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

​Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.

Gaudenz Schneider

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Intuitive Surgical's success with Da Vinci robot sets good tone for Sysmex; R/E related surge with Blackstone; Recruit's buyback potential may be...

Nikkei 225 option volatility stabilizes at high level. This Insight identifies a tactical opportunity and analyzes market moves after Bank of...

Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.