Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX</a> and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>The largest impact is expected on the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> while flows are large among changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index too.</li>
<li>There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index in March.
The largest impact is expected on the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) while flows are large among changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index too.
There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, China TCM.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>.       </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: APM Human Services Internation (APM AU), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), China TCM.
Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP).       


Merger Arb Mondays (04 Mar) - JSR, Shinko, Outsourcing, APM, Alumina, Adbri, Azure, CSR, Probiotec

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, Snow Peak.    </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads  Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), CSR Ltd (CSR AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Lithium Power International (LPI AU). 
Lowest spreads - Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Snow Peak.    


Merger Arb Mondays (26 Feb) - China TCM, Azure, A2B, Boral, CSR, Outsourcing, Snow Peak, Genetron

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.</li>
<li>I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200 including a surprise deletion due to long term suspension of a stock.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.
I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200 including a surprise deletion due to long term suspension of a stock.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Five ASX 200 Changes Possible Including One Surprise

Australia

Red 5 Limited is a minieral exploration and development company. The Company's principal asset is the Siana Gold Project in the Philippines held under a Mineral Production Sharing Agreement by a Red5 Philippine compliant company. Red 5's second asset is the Mapawa MPSA, located north of Siana.

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Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There are 38 constituent changes across the index family. There are big flows and impacts for a bunch of stocks. Short interest is high on the...

Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (04 Mar) - JSR, Shinko, Outsourcing, APM, Alumina, Adbri, Azure, CSR, Probiotec

This week, the highest gross spreads are APM (19.8%), Probiotec (10.2%), Alumina (10.1%), Shinko Electric (7.9%), JSR (7.4%), China TCM (5.7%),...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (26 Feb) - China TCM, Azure, A2B, Boral, CSR, Outsourcing, Snow Peak, Genetron

This week, the highest gross spreads are Probiotec (10.2%), JSR (7.6%), Shinko Electric (7.6%), CSR (7.4%), China TCM (7.2%), Lithium Power (6.5%),...

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Five ASX 200 Changes Possible Including One Surprise

The ASX index changes will be announced on 1st March 2024. Long-term suspension name Leo Lithium is a potential DEL in March 2024 from the ASX...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There are 38 constituent changes across the index family. There are big flows and impacts for a bunch of stocks. Short interest is high on the...

Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (04 Mar) - JSR, Shinko, Outsourcing, APM, Alumina, Adbri, Azure, CSR, Probiotec

This week, the highest gross spreads are APM (19.8%), Probiotec (10.2%), Alumina (10.1%), Shinko Electric (7.9%), JSR (7.4%), China TCM (5.7%),...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (26 Feb) - China TCM, Azure, A2B, Boral, CSR, Outsourcing, Snow Peak, Genetron

This week, the highest gross spreads are Probiotec (10.2%), JSR (7.6%), Shinko Electric (7.6%), CSR (7.4%), China TCM (7.2%), Lithium Power (6.5%),...

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Five ASX 200 Changes Possible Including One Surprise

The ASX index changes will be announced on 1st March 2024. Long-term suspension name Leo Lithium is a potential DEL in March 2024 from the ASX...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning