Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Discord hit $600M in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of 2023, up 35% year-over-year.</li><li>Generative AI was just emerging as Discord’s next big tailwind, with Midjourney projecting $200M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) from their AI art generation tool built into a Discord server.</li><li>This week, Discord announced that they’re moving away from their vision of building the chat app for every community, and leaning into the product-market fit they have for interactive, co-creative experiences.</li></ul>

Discord hit $600M in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of 2023, up 35% year-over-year.Generative AI was just emerging as Discord’s next big tailwind, with Midjourney projecting $200M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) from their AI art generation tool built into a Discord server.This week, Discord announced that they’re moving away from their vision of building the chat app for every community, and leaning into the product-market fit they have for interactive, co-creative experiences.

<ul><li>Interestingly—because that&#39;s related to my LinkedIn Premium experience—most users, especially the ones who sign up for LinkedIn Premium, are people who expect Premium to help them better leverage their network.</li><li>People have a lot of connections, but they don&#39;t know how keep up with them.</li><li>For example, let’s say a pre-seed fintech founder is looking to raise a seed round.</li></ul>

Interestingly—because that&#39;s related to my LinkedIn Premium experience—most users, especially the ones who sign up for LinkedIn Premium, are people who expect Premium to help them better leverage their network.People have a lot of connections, but they don&#39;t know how keep up with them.For example, let’s say a pre-seed fintech founder is looking to raise a seed round.

Abdallah Absi, co-founder And CEO Of Village, On Using PostHog For Product Analytics

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Astera Labs, an overvalued fabless semiconductor company, has completed its IPO and raised ~$565M of net proceeds in the offering. The IPO was priced at $36/share.</li>
<li>Astera Labs shares jumped 70%+ in their first trading day and finished session at $62.03. The stock peaked at $95.21 on Tuesday and fell ~21% over the next 2 days.</li>
<li>According to their prospectus, ~5.9M shares of Astera Labs will be available for sale following the public release of earnings for 1Q’24, which I expect to be announced in April.</li>
</ul>


Astera Labs, an overvalued fabless semiconductor company, has completed its IPO and raised ~$565M of net proceeds in the offering. The IPO was priced at $36/share.
Astera Labs shares jumped 70%+ in their first trading day and finished session at $62.03. The stock peaked at $95.21 on Tuesday and fell ~21% over the next 2 days.
According to their prospectus, ~5.9M shares of Astera Labs will be available for sale following the public release of earnings for 1Q’24, which I expect to be announced in April.


Astera Labs: Early Lock-Up Expiry Is Coming, ~$450M Worth of Shares Will Be Available For Sale

<ul><li>As rumors swirled of a Peter Thiel takeover of Twitter in 2016, the anti-corporate Russian-born Eugen Rochko launched Mastodon as a decentralized, open-source protocol anyone could use to launch a Twitter clone with their own moderation standards and code of conduct.</li><li>Truth Social (NASDAQ: DJT) went public on Tuesday via SPAC, climbing to a $9.3B market cap by Wednesday afternoon for a 2,086x multiple on just $4.5M in 2023 revenue in a memetic frenzy reminiscent of GameStop’s (NYSE: GME) 2021 run, powered by /r/The_Donald diaspora (now hosted on Scored) and /r/wallstreetbets.</li><li>Ironically, Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter may be the biggest headwind for alt-tech social media—by loosening Twitter’s moderation, he’s killed the deplatforming threat that drove their growth, with Gab usage declining from 4.3M MAUs at their peak to 1.2M, Truth Social declining from 9M to 1M, and Mastodon declining from 2.5M to 1M.</li></ul>

As rumors swirled of a Peter Thiel takeover of Twitter in 2016, the anti-corporate Russian-born Eugen Rochko launched Mastodon as a decentralized, open-source protocol anyone could use to launch a Twitter clone with their own moderation standards and code of conduct.Truth Social (NASDAQ: DJT) went public on Tuesday via SPAC, climbing to a $9.3B market cap by Wednesday afternoon for a 2,086x multiple on just $4.5M in 2023 revenue in a memetic frenzy reminiscent of GameStop’s (NYSE: GME) 2021 run, powered by /r/The_Donald diaspora (now hosted on Scored) and /r/wallstreetbets.Ironically, Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter may be the biggest headwind for alt-tech social media—by loosening Twitter’s moderation, he’s killed the deplatforming threat that drove their growth, with Gab usage declining from 4.3M MAUs at their peak to 1.2M, Truth Social declining from 9M to 1M, and Mastodon declining from 2.5M to 1M.

Truth Social: The GameStop For The alt-right

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Tata Consultancy Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> ended up doing better than we expected, while Hong Kong finally got its first US$100m+ listing for the year.</li>
<li>For placements, India was again at the forefront, this time with a not-so-pleasant results of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Trial Holdings (5882 JP) ended up doing better than we expected, while Hong Kong finally got its first US$100m+ listing for the year.
For placements, India was again at the forefront, this time with a not-so-pleasant results of Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN). 


ECM Weekly (25th Mar 2024) - TCS, Akeso, Coforge, ABSL, Tokio Marine, Trial, Migao, Mixue, Reddit

United States

Reddit, Inc. operates as an online discussion platform. The Company publicizes online items recommended by members and aggregates news stories submitted by users. Reddit serves customers worldwide.

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Reddit (RDDT US)

Discord At $600M/year

TL;DR: Sacra estimates that Discord hit $600M in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of 2023, up 35% year-over-year. After attempting to...

Sacra

Abdallah Absi, co-founder And CEO Of Village, On Using PostHog For Product Analytics

Tell us a bit about yourself and Village. What inspired you to start it...

Sacra

Astera Labs: Early Lock-Up Expiry Is Coming, ~$450M Worth of Shares Will Be Available For Sale

Astera Labs stock currently trades at 60x my 2024 revenue estimate of $215M and I view valuation multiples as unsustainable given upcoming early...

Andrei Zakharov

ECM Weekly (25th Mar 2024) - TCS, Akeso, Coforge, ABSL, Tokio Marine, Trial, Migao, Mixue, Reddit

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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Discord At $600M/year

TL;DR: Sacra estimates that Discord hit $600M in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of 2023, up 35% year-over-year. After attempting to...

Sacra

Abdallah Absi, co-founder And CEO Of Village, On Using PostHog For Product Analytics

Tell us a bit about yourself and Village. What inspired you to start it...

Sacra

Astera Labs: Early Lock-Up Expiry Is Coming, ~$450M Worth of Shares Will Be Available For Sale

Astera Labs stock currently trades at 60x my 2024 revenue estimate of $215M and I view valuation multiples as unsustainable given upcoming early...

Andrei Zakharov

Truth Social: The GameStop For The alt-right

TL;DR: “Free speech” social media platforms found product-market fit hosting conversations banned on mainstream platforms, and they’re now...

Sacra

ECM Weekly (25th Mar 2024) - TCS, Akeso, Coforge, ABSL, Tokio Marine, Trial, Migao, Mixue, Reddit

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh