Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December</li>
<li>But unsustainably strong US imports &amp; potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling</li>
<li>We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT</li>
</ul>


After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December
But unsustainably strong US imports &amp; potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling
We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Regional Container Lines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating on RCL with a new 2025E fair value (FV) of Bt24.20 (from Bt30.00 previously).</li><li>The stock price currently has downside of 3% to our FV of Bt24.20, based on a required rate of return of 17.36%, reflecting the target PER of 5.8x.</li><li>RCL’s growth trajectory is categorized as weak, with the 2025-26E earnings to normalize from the 2024 upcycle.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating on RCL with a new 2025E fair value (FV) of Bt24.20 (from Bt30.00 previously).The stock price currently has downside of 3% to our FV of Bt24.20, based on a required rate of return of 17.36%, reflecting the target PER of 5.8x.RCL’s growth trajectory is categorized as weak, with the 2025-26E earnings to normalize from the 2024 upcycle.

Regional Container Lines - Solid 4Q24E but Upcycle Already Behind It

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>'s positive profit alert beat the FY24 forecast by 12%. It also suggests an acceleration in growth to 1.9-2.1x in 2H24, from +13% in 1H24. </li>
<li>The muted share price performance reflects concerns about an influx of capacity, intra-Asia demand outlook, and freight rate prospects. We refute such worries.</li>
<li>It stands on an attractive dividend yield of 11.1% for FY24. Even under conservative earnings forecasts, its 8.1% and 6.6% yields for FY25 and FY26 are appealing.</li>
</ul>



SITC International (1308 HK)'s positive profit alert beat the FY24 forecast by 12%. It also suggests an acceleration in growth to 1.9-2.1x in 2H24, from +13% in 1H24. 
The muted share price performance reflects concerns about an influx of capacity, intra-Asia demand outlook, and freight rate prospects. We refute such worries.
It stands on an attractive dividend yield of 11.1% for FY24. Even under conservative earnings forecasts, its 8.1% and 6.6% yields for FY25 and FY26 are appealing.


SITC International (1308 HK): Beating Expectations Again

<ul>
<li>We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025</li>
<li>Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was <em>negative</em> 0.8%</li>
<li>We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID</li>
</ul>


We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025
Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%
We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID


Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Regional container carrier TS Lines debuted in HK at HK$4.18 on November 1 </li>
<li>Post-IPO, shares appear cheap, trading at 65% of fleet replacement + net cash</li>
<li>We provide updates on early trading, Q324 earnings from peers, &amp; more</li>
</ul>


Regional container carrier TS Lines debuted in HK at HK$4.18 on November 1 
Post-IPO, shares appear cheap, trading at 65% of fleet replacement + net cash
We provide updates on early trading, Q324 earnings from peers, &amp; more


TS Lines HKEX IPO: Early Trading | Valuation Vs Wan Hai & RCL | Return to TransPac May Not Work Out

Thailand

Regional Container Lines is a Thailand-based international container shipping company specializing in feeder services for containerized cargo across Asia-centric networks. It offers integrated logistics solutions including sea freight, road transport, air cargo, and rail services, supporting both Shipper-Owned Containers (SOC) and Carrier-Owned Containers (COC). The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Regional Container Lines (RCL TB)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

A ceasefire, if successful, will lead to lower rates in the Asia-Europe & Transpacific trades. We remain -ive on container shipping in 2025 despite...

Tracking Traffic

Regional Container Lines - Solid 4Q24E but Upcycle Already Behind It

The stock price currently has downside of 3% to our FV of Bt24.20, based on a required rate of return of 17.36%, reflecting the target PER of 5.8x.

Krungthai XSpring

SITC International (1308 HK): Beating Expectations Again

SITC beats the consensus FY24 profit forecast by 12%, implying growth acceleration in 2H24. We do not agree with concerns on capacity, demand, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines HKEX IPO: Early Trading | Valuation Vs Wan Hai & RCL | Return to TransPac May Not Work Out

In this insight we offer some quick updates on regional container carrier TS Lines, which successfully listed its shares in Hong Kong on November 1.

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

A ceasefire, if successful, will lead to lower rates in the Asia-Europe & Transpacific trades. We remain -ive on container shipping in 2025 despite...

Tracking Traffic

Regional Container Lines - Solid 4Q24E but Upcycle Already Behind It

The stock price currently has downside of 3% to our FV of Bt24.20, based on a required rate of return of 17.36%, reflecting the target PER of 5.8x.

Krungthai XSpring

SITC International (1308 HK): Beating Expectations Again

​SITC beats the consensus FY24 profit forecast by 12%, implying growth acceleration in 2H24. We do not agree with concerns on capacity, demand, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines HKEX IPO: Early Trading | Valuation Vs Wan Hai & RCL | Return to TransPac May Not Work Out

In this insight we offer some quick updates on regional container carrier TS Lines, which successfully listed its shares in Hong Kong on November 1.

Tracking Traffic

SITC beats the consensus FY24 profit forecast by 12%, implying growth acceleration in 2H24. We do not agree with concerns on capacity, demand, and...