Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in April 2022, Australia's largest private hospital operator <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a></strong> announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR at A$88.00/share. Arguably, KKR dodged a bullet.</li>
<li>RHC's share price took another leg down last week after RHC announced weaker-than-expected FY24 earnings; plus a write-down of its European/UK ops. RHC is now ~50% adrift of KKR's NBIO.</li>
<li>Not altogether surprisingly, various media sources are reporting private equity outfits are (again) running a diagnostic check on RHC. </li>
</ul>


Back in April 2022, Australia's largest private hospital operator Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR at A$88.00/share. Arguably, KKR dodged a bullet.
RHC's share price took another leg down last week after RHC announced weaker-than-expected FY24 earnings; plus a write-down of its European/UK ops. RHC is now ~50% adrift of KKR's NBIO.
Not altogether surprisingly, various media sources are reporting private equity outfits are (again) running a diagnostic check on RHC. 


Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.
There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.
Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX</a> and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>The largest impact is expected on the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> while flows are large among changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index too.</li>
<li>There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index in March.
The largest impact is expected on the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) while flows are large among changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index too.
There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The results for the March 2024 index rebal event for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.</li>
<li>There is one change for ASX 20, two changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>There are 14 ADDs and 10 DELs for ASX 300 and while most of these are small-size flow names some of them have more than 15x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The results for the March 2024 index rebal event for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.
There is one change for ASX 20, two changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200.
There are 14 ADDs and 10 DELs for ASX 300 and while most of these are small-size flow names some of them have more than 15x ADV to trade.


Quiddity ASX Mar 24 Index Rebal: Many High-Impact Names

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a> IE considers Bain’s A$3.20 (A$3.08 excluding paid dividends) offer fair and reasonable as it is above its valuation range of $2.83 to A$3.21 per share. </li>
<li>The offer is subject to FIRB and possibly aged care industry approvals. The MAC clause risk, particularly around material regulatory events, is diminishing.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 30 November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.3% and 9.7%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The Estia Health (EHE AU) IE considers Bain’s A$3.20 (A$3.08 excluding paid dividends) offer fair and reasonable as it is above its valuation range of $2.83 to A$3.21 per share. 
The offer is subject to FIRB and possibly aged care industry approvals. The MAC clause risk, particularly around material regulatory events, is diminishing.
This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 30 November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.3% and 9.7%, respectively.


Estia Health (EHE AU): Scheme Meeting on 15 November

Australia

Regis Healthcare Limited is a treatment program that offers Family Therapy, Clinical Psychology, Education and Occupational Therapy.

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Regis Healthcare (REG AU)

Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

Ramsay's share price is pretty beaten up. FY24 earnings are expected to be roughly in line with FY22 figures. And KKR was still willing to pay...

David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There are 38 constituent changes across the index family. There are big flows and impacts for a bunch of stocks. Short interest is high on the...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Mar 24 Index Rebal: Many High-Impact Names

On average, the ADDs have 11x ADV to buy and DELs have 8x ADV to sell. The ADDs could outperform the DELs over the next two weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Estia Health (EHE AU): Scheme Meeting on 15 November

This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 30 November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.3% and 9.7%, respectively.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

Ramsay's share price is pretty beaten up. FY24 earnings are expected to be roughly in line with FY22 figures. And KKR was still willing to pay...

David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There are 38 constituent changes across the index family. There are big flows and impacts for a bunch of stocks. Short interest is high on the...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ASX Mar 24 Index Rebal: Many High-Impact Names

On average, the ADDs have 11x ADV to buy and DELs have 8x ADV to sell. The ADDs could outperform the DELs over the next two weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Estia Health (EHE AU): Scheme Meeting on 15 November

This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 30 November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.3% and 9.7%, respectively.

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning