Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 19th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Ramelius Resources, Brambles, Evolution Mining, Regis Resources.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 19th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Ramelius Resources, Brambles, Evolution Mining, Regis Resources.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 19th): Northern Star Resources, Ramelius Resources, Brambles

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR's NST stake.</li>
<li>The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  </li>
<li>The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. </li>
</ul>


The Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) IE considers Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR's NST stake.
The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. 


Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly.  For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It's a big deal. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly.  For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.
There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It's a big deal. 


[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

Australia

Regis Resources Ltd. is a mineral exploration and production company. The Company mines for gold, nickel, and copper.

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Regis Resources (RRL AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 19th): Northern Star Resources, Ramelius Resources, Brambles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Ramelius Resources,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

The vote is low-risk. The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%.

Arun George

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

We see 8 adds and 25 deletes for GDX. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% and round-trip trade is US$6.18bn. Forecast adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF rebal in September comes with a change in benchmark which makes this a bigger deal than normal. That adds flows. We see...

Travis Lundy

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