Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 17th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX, Atlas Arteria.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 17th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX, Atlas Arteria.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 17th): Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX, Atlas Arteria

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">Baycurrent (6532 JP)</a> is very short-term, and it is not highly-convicted, but it is a warning of a short-term dip potential.</li>
<li>A curious development as EQT (barely) bumps indicative terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> in what appears to be a self destructing offer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> is dirt cheap. Old Peak thinks so too and has taken a nearly 5% stake.</li>
</ul>



Baycurrent (6532 JP) is very short-term, and it is not highly-convicted, but it is a warning of a short-term dip potential.
A curious development as EQT (barely) bumps indicative terms for Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) in what appears to be a self destructing offer.

Digital Garage (4819 JP) is dirt cheap. Old Peak thinks so too and has taken a nearly 5% stake.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Baycurrent, Perpetual, Digital Garage, Genesis/Vault, Seven & I, SoftBank

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> merger will bring much larger passive flows compared to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources (RRL AU)</a> and Vault merger.</li>
<li>For each share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> held, shareholders will receive 0.7629 shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> plus A$0.475 in cash.</li>
<li>The MergeCo could be added to a couple of indices and be upweighted in a few others, bringing in over A$1bn of inflows following merger completion in October/November.</li>
</ul>


The Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) and Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) merger will bring much larger passive flows compared to the Regis Resources (RRL AU) and Vault merger.
For each share of Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) held, shareholders will receive 0.7629 shares in Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) plus A$0.475 in cash.
The MergeCo could be added to a couple of indices and be upweighted in a few others, bringing in over A$1bn of inflows following merger completion in October/November.


Genesis (GMD AU) & Vault (VAU AU) Merger: Index Implications with A$1bn to Buy

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> entered into a scheme at 0.7629 GMD shares per VAU share + A$0.475 cash per share.</li>
<li>Genesis has long been rumoured to be a suitor for Vault because a combination of the two would create the dominant player in Western Australia’s most valuable gold-mining regions.</li>
<li>The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process.</li>
</ul>



Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) entered into a scheme at 0.7629 GMD shares per VAU share + A$0.475 cash per share.
Genesis has long been rumoured to be a suitor for Vault because a combination of the two would create the dominant player in Western Australia’s most valuable gold-mining regions.
The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process.


Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> pitched a "superior" cash/scrip Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> on the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260706/pdf/071dhlbn534zn5.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6th July</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources (RRL AU)</a> was expected to walk. <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260713/pdf/071mxy5kf9g04s.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">And they did</a>. </li>
<li>This morning, Genesis/Vault <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260714/pdf/071p7s2kxlqn95.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">firmed terms</a>: 0.7629 new shares for every Vault share, plus A$0.475/share in cash - for an implied value of A$5.274/share. Terms are unchanged from the 6th July.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. Expect a Scheme Booklet by August/September, a meeting a month later, and expected implementation by October/November. Clean deal. </li>
</ul>


After Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) pitched a "superior" cash/scrip Offer for Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) on the 6th July, Regis Resources (RRL AU) was expected to walk. And they did. 
This morning, Genesis/Vault firmed terms: 0.7629 new shares for every Vault share, plus A$0.475/share in cash - for an implied value of A$5.274/share. Terms are unchanged from the 6th July.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. Expect a Scheme Booklet by August/September, a meeting a month later, and expected implementation by October/November. Clean deal. 


Genesis And Vault Firm Terms After Regis Walks

Australia

Regis Resources Ltd. is a mineral exploration and production company. The Company mines for gold, nickel, and copper.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Regis Resources (RRL AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 17th): Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX, Atlas Arteria

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Genesis Minerals, CSL, Aristocrat Leisure, ASX,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week In Event SPACE: Baycurrent, Perpetual, Digital Garage, Genesis/Vault, Seven & I, SoftBank

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Genesis (GMD AU) & Vault (VAU AU) Merger: Index Implications with A$1bn to Buy

The Genesis/Vault merger will result in index inclusions and upweights with over A$1bn of inflows following completion. There is a high sensitivity...

Brian Freitas

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Genesis And Vault Firm Terms After Regis Walks

Clean deal. I see the spread at a ~2.2%. If you can take down borrow cheaply in Genesis Minerals, do so, if not already.

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)