Director, RaaS Research Group, Research as a Service (RaaS)

RaaS Research Group (RaaS)

Director, RaaS Research Group

Insightful Financial Models and Research Analysis

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Connect to the right investors through smart and insightful financial models and research analysis.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We have applied some screens to 15 ASX-listed retail stocks to determine which potentially present the best returns.</li><li>As a retail analyst in a former life, I have learnt two things about consumers: buyer fatigue and pent-up demand.</li><li>We saw online buyer fatigue post-Covid and we are arguably in a period that will lead to pent-up demand following the tightening of consumer belts in the current cost-of-living/interest rate environment.</li></ul>

We have applied some screens to 15 ASX-listed retail stocks to determine which potentially present the best returns.As a retail analyst in a former life, I have learnt two things about consumers: buyer fatigue and pent-up demand.We saw online buyer fatigue post-Covid and we are arguably in a period that will lead to pent-up demand following the tightening of consumer belts in the current cost-of-living/interest rate environment.

Mid-Cap Discretionary Retail Analysis -Screening for Best Recovery Plays

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Leisure companies under our coverage endured a torrid reporting season, with average fiscal 2017 first-half EBITDA fall of 15% from a year ago. The results were mostly driven by factors specific to each group. Still, whether it is the sentiment impact of an isolated theme park tragedy, competitive intensity in the U.S. leisure market, low airfares, or film popularity, the bottom line is there are many variables beyond management's control in the industry. These factors are the very basis for our…

Leisure companies under our coverage endured a torrid reporting season, with average fiscal 2017 first-half EBITDA fall of 15% from a year ago. The results were mostly driven by factors specific to each group. Still, whether it is the sentiment impact of an isolated theme park tragedy, competitive intensity in the U.S. leisure market, low airfares, or film popularity, the bottom line is there are many variables beyond management's control in the industry. These factors are the very basis for our…

Not Much Fun In Leisure; Ardent Leisure Undervalued While Event Hospitality Worth Monitoring

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>Australians' long held fascination with land is part of the national psyche.&nbsp; In a speech delivered overnight, RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe shows why.&nbsp;&nbsp;Land accounts for one-third of Australia's national assets and that higher land values - not dwellings - have driven residential property markets higher in recent decades.</li><li>Booming land values reflect favourable demand side influences, including strong growth in population and household incomes, while zoning restrictions have meant that the supply response to higher prices has been muted.&nbsp; With slower expected future income growth and increased concerns about future housing costs, the response to higher housing prices looks to be smaller than it was previously.</li><li>Nonetheless, Mr Lowe acknowledges that that a reduction in the household savings ratio is &lsquo;probably appropriate&rsquo; as the economy re-balances from a terms of trade and mining investment booms.&nbsp; Against this backdrop, I re-iterate my positive view on discretionary retailers.&nbsp; Key stocks to buy: HVN, JBH, DSH, GWA, MYR and PMV.</li></ul>

Australians' long held fascination with land is part of the national psyche.&nbsp; In a speech delivered overnight, RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe shows why.&nbsp;&nbsp;Land accounts for one-third of Australia's national assets and that higher land values - not dwellings - have driven residential property markets higher in recent decades.Booming land values reflect favourable demand side influences, including strong growth in population and household incomes, while zoning restrictions have meant that the supply response to higher prices has been muted.&nbsp; With slower expected future income growth and increased concerns about future housing costs, the response to higher housing prices looks to be smaller than it was previously.Nonetheless, Mr Lowe acknowledges that that a reduction in the household savings ratio is &lsquo;probably appropriate&rsquo; as the economy re-balances from a terms of trade and mining investment booms.&nbsp; Against this backdrop, I re-iterate my positive view on discretionary retailers.&nbsp; Key stocks to buy: HVN, JBH, DSH, GWA, MYR and PMV.

Australia's land obsession - Reiterate postive view on discretionary retailers

Macroeconomics

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joy-city-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10958:1" rel="noopener">Joy City Property (207 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-chouzai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5873:1" rel="noopener">Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mac-copper-limited-6dcb19d0-2c56-496c-817a-5d64e48b3c5d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45237:1" rel="noopener">MAC Copper (MAC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ainsworth-game-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:957:1" rel="noopener">Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piedmont-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17619:1" rel="noopener">Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon (7732 JP)</a> .</li>
</ul>


I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Joy City Property (207 HK), Hogy Medical (3593 JP), and Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP).
Key updates/news took place on MAC Copper (MAC AU), PointsBet (PBH AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU),Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), and Topcon (7732 JP) .


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Joy City, Hogy Medical, Nihon Chouzai, Piedmont Lithium, Pacific Ind.

Australia

The Reject Shop Limited operates discount retail stores in Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and the ACT.  The Company's discount stores offers a variety of merchandise such as apparel, houseware, leisure, personal care and hardware and furniture.

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Reject Shop (TRS AU)

Mid-Cap Discretionary Retail Analysis -Screening for Best Recovery Plays

Investors may place more emphasis on one criteria over another but our analysis reveals (ASX:DSK), (ASX:UNI) and (ASX:NCK) tick the most boxes.

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Not Much Fun In Leisure; Ardent Leisure Undervalued While Event Hospitality Worth Monitoring

Leisure companies under our coverage endured a torrid reporting season, with average fiscal 2017 first-half EBITDA fall of 15% from a year ago. The...

Morningstar, Inc.

Australia's land obsession - Reiterate postive view on discretionary retailers

Australians' long held fascination with land is part of the national psyche. In a speech delivered overnight, RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe...

Sam Ferraro

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years...

Sam Ferraro

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Joy City, Hogy Medical, Nihon Chouzai, Piedmont Lithium, Pacific Ind.

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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