Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Homebuilders surging on prospect for lower rates to help Sumi Forestry and Sekisui House.</li>
<li>NVDA and AMD down as rivalry with Google for AI chips heats up.</li>
<li>Bain looking to take around 13%/36mm shs of their holding in Kioxia off the table in a block trade this Friday.</li>
</ul>


Homebuilders surging on prospect for lower rates to help Sumi Forestry and Sekisui House.
NVDA and AMD down as rivalry with Google for AI chips heats up.
Bain looking to take around 13%/36mm shs of their holding in Kioxia off the table in a block trade this Friday.


Japan Morning Connection: New Potential Fed Chairman Likely to Add Another Voice for 50 Bps Cut

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.</li>
<li>The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.

Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.


Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> plan to raise around US$700m via selling down some of their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyoda-gosei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20125:1" rel="noopener">Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal is a large one to digest at over 20% of the company and 90 days of ADV.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) plan to raise around US$700m via selling down some of their stake in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
The deal is a large one to digest at over 20% of the company and 90 days of ADV.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Toyoda Gosei Placement - Somewhat Expected but Relatively Large with Delayed Buyback

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyoda-gosei-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20125:1" rel="noopener">Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>Toyoda Gosei's primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.</li>
</ul>



Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).
Toyoda Gosei's primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.
The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.


Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering

<ul>
<li>NAND memory spot prices surge another 17% WoW on worsening S/D dynamics.</li>
<li>No take-over for Trend Micro, but an accelerated buyback will be enough for a short-term squeeze.</li>
<li>Sanken may be back in focus given its deep disc NAV as sentiment rises for power and industrial names.</li>
</ul>


NAND memory spot prices surge another 17% WoW on worsening S/D dynamics.
No take-over for Trend Micro, but an accelerated buyback will be enough for a short-term squeeze.
Sanken may be back in focus given its deep disc NAV as sentiment rises for power and industrial names.


Japan Morning Connection: Power and Industrial Semis in Focus After Infineon Big Beat on AI

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: New Potential Fed Chairman Likely to Add Another Voice for 50 Bps Cut

NVDA and AMD fell lower with competition in AI chips, Bain plans to sell part of Kioxia stake, Socionext seems to have lost connection as a Google...

Andrew Jackson

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Toshiba unloaded a lot of Kioxia shares in Sep/Oct. Now Bain is selling US$2bn+ of stock and there could be more next year. The recent results...

Brian Freitas

Toyoda Gosei Placement - Somewhat Expected but Relatively Large with Delayed Buyback

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) plan to raise around US$700m via selling down some of their stake in Toyoda...

Sumeet Singh

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering

The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Power and Industrial Semis in Focus After Infineon Big Beat on AI

Slight tech rebound led by power semis. Smaller NAND buyers not having access to wholesale suppliers, buying from spot market and driving up...

Andrew Jackson

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