Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day yesterday.</li>
<li>China’s Q4/25 GDP eased to 4.5% y-o-y (vs. 4.8% in Q3). Still, full-year GDP expanded 5.0% for the second straight year, meeting the government’s “around 5%” growth target.</li>
<li>China’s December macro releases were mixed, with strong industrial production offset by weaker retail sales and falling investment.</li>
</ul>


US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day yesterday.
China’s Q4/25 GDP eased to 4.5% y-o-y (vs. 4.8% in Q3). Still, full-year GDP expanded 5.0% for the second straight year, meeting the government’s “around 5%” growth target.
China’s December macro releases were mixed, with strong industrial production offset by weaker retail sales and falling investment.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For December 2025, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~87%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (124 transactions), 2023 (114), 2022 (104), 2021 (143), 2020 (133), and 2019 (110) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For December 2025, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~87%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (124 transactions), 2023 (114), 2022 (104), 2021 (143), 2020 (133), and 2019 (110) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2025 Wrap: ANE Cayman, Mandom, Predictive Discovery, Hogy Medical

<ul>
<li>Late Friday (28th November), general building contractor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/low-keng-huat-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1928:1" rel="noopener">Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP)</a> ("LKH") announced a voluntary conditional Offer from Dato' Marco Low Peng Kiat, LKH's controlling shareholder (54.13%).</li>
<li>Low is offering S$0.72/share, a so-so 17.1% premium to undisturbed, but a decade-high price. Plus the share price is up 104% YTD. Recent results (to 31st July) were also underwhelming.</li>
<li>The Offer has a 90% acceptance hurdle condition. Low does not intend to maintain listing. The price hasn't been declared final, possibly leading to a bump in the home stretch. </li>
</ul>


Late Friday (28th November), general building contractor Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP) ("LKH") announced a voluntary conditional Offer from Dato' Marco Low Peng Kiat, LKH's controlling shareholder (54.13%).
Low is offering S$0.72/share, a so-so 17.1% premium to undisturbed, but a decade-high price. Plus the share price is up 104% YTD. Recent results (to 31st July) were also underwhelming.
The Offer has a 90% acceptance hurdle condition. Low does not intend to maintain listing. The price hasn't been declared final, possibly leading to a bump in the home stretch. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman (9956 HK)</a>'s Scheme Doc is out, absent any reference to CDH (holding an estimated 18%). Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s Offer Price is more than expected; but the fact that Dalton , who really wanted to sell, but isn't selling, suggests the price should be higher.</li>
<li>8th January vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>.  Safe deal. This is effectively a term deposit hybrid.</li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman (9956 HK)'s Scheme Doc is out, absent any reference to CDH (holding an estimated 18%). Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid.

Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s Offer Price is more than expected; but the fact that Dalton , who really wanted to sell, but isn't selling, suggests the price should be higher.
8th January vote on HSBC (5 HK)'s Offer for Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).  Safe deal. This is effectively a term deposit hybrid.


Last Week In Event SPACE: ANE Cayman. Hogy Medical, Hang Seng, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent

<ul>
<li>I tally xx - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Four new (ish) deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11865:1" rel="noopener">360 Capital (TGP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> </li>
</ul>


I tally xx - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Four new (ish) deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: 360 Capital (TGP AU), Humm Group (HUM AU) , Hogy Medical (3593 JP), and Medical Data Vision (3902 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), and Mandom Corp (4917 JP) 


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Mandom Humm, Medical Data Vision, Predictive Disc., ReNew Energy Global

India

ReNew Energy Global is a decarbonization solutions company and a leading independent power producer, primarily focused on utility-scale wind, solar, and hydro energy projects in India. The company also provides clean energy solutions through digitalization, storage, carbon market services, and manufacturing of solar panels and modules. It was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Gurugram, India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

China’s Q4/25 GDP eased to 4.5% y-o-y (vs. 4.8% in Q3). Still, full-year GDP expanded 5.0% for the second straight year, meeting the government’s...

Lucror Analytics

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2025 Wrap: ANE Cayman, Mandom, Predictive Discovery, Hogy Medical

For the month of Dec, 5 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$3bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Low Keng Huat (LKH SP)'s Clean MBO

The Circ is now out. The IFA (in its 36 page report beginning on page 32 of the PDF) says "not fair but reasonable". The first close is the 14th...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: ANE Cayman. Hogy Medical, Hang Seng, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Mandom Humm, Medical Data Vision, Predictive Disc., ReNew Energy Global

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)