Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>. The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19521:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa (5715 JP)</a> has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.</li>
<li>While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a>'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.

Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Macquarie's Bid for Renewi: Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share, valuing Renewi at £707 million, a 57% premium to the pre-offer price, with the deal structured as a scheme of arrangement.</li>
<li>Regulatory and Shareholder Support: 21.1% of Renewi shareholders, including major investors and directors, have given irrevocable undertakings to support the deal, pending approvals from EU, Belgian, and Chinese regulators.</li>
<li>Investment Outlook: At 853p, the gross spread is 2.0%, with an annualized return of ~5.5% if completed by Q2 2025. Market implies a 94.3% probability of success (break price 554p).</li>
</ul>


Macquarie's Bid for Renewi: Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share, valuing Renewi at £707 million, a 57% premium to the pre-offer price, with the deal structured as a scheme of arrangement.
Regulatory and Shareholder Support: 21.1% of Renewi shareholders, including major investors and directors, have given irrevocable undertakings to support the deal, pending approvals from EU, Belgian, and Chinese regulators.
Investment Outlook: At 853p, the gross spread is 2.0%, with an annualized return of ~5.5% if completed by Q2 2025. Market implies a 94.3% probability of success (break price 554p).


<ul>
<li>LVC sits a blocking stake ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s shareholder vote on the 22nd Janaury. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>extends the closing date to the 24th January. Shares held plus tendering is currently 86.18%. This is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> was IPOed in September 2023. Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks</li>
</ul>


LVC sits a blocking stake ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s shareholder vote on the 22nd Janaury. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.

Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)extends the closing date to the 24th January. Shares held plus tendering is currently 86.18%. This is done.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

<ul>
<li>Macquarie's final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.</li>
<li>Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.</li>
<li>The offer aligns closely with Renewi's intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.</li>
</ul>


Macquarie's final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.
Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.
The offer aligns closely with Renewi's intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.


Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I see one change for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index. There could be more as there are many names close to the border.</li>
<li>There are also a couple of potential intra-review changes expected in the next few weeks for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lxi-reit-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40684:1" rel="noopener">LXI REIT (LXI LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/network-international-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28918:1" rel="noopener">Network International Holdings (NETW LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
I see one change for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index. There could be more as there are many names close to the border.
There are also a couple of potential intra-review changes expected in the next few weeks for LXI REIT (LXI LN) and Network International Holdings (NETW LN) 


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

United Kingdom

Renewi is a leading European waste-to-product company that specializes in collecting, sorting, processing, and recycling waste materials into reusable secondary products. These products include metals, plastics, paper, glass, organics, and energy sources, advancing the circular economy. The company was formed in March 2017 through the merger of Shanks Group plc and Van Gansewinkel Groep BV, and its operations are primarily concentrated in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Portugal. Renewi is headquartered in Milton Keynes, United Kingdom, and was founded in 1880.

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Renewi (RWIN MM)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer

Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ahead of Macquarie's PUSU Deadline

Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

There could be two slots for intra-review replacements in March 2024. Currently, Alfa Financial Software (ALFA LN) and Brunner Investment Trust...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer

​Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shanghai Henlius, Malaysia Airports, Kokusai Electric, Smart Share

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Ahead of Macquarie's PUSU Deadline

​Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

There could be two slots for intra-review replacements in March 2024. Currently, Alfa Financial Software (ALFA LN) and Brunner Investment Trust...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!