Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Reaching 2,635 bbl/d without Capella.</li><li>High cash position – The RCE-5 well flowed 680 bbl/d (340 bbl/d net to Arrow) of oil over the last 24 hours.</li><li>GeoPark (GPRK US) C; Target price of US$26 per share: First horizontal well at LL-34 in production at over 3,000 bbl/d – 1Q23 production was 36,578 boe/d.</li></ul>

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Reaching 2,635 bbl/d without Capella.High cash position – The RCE-5 well flowed 680 bbl/d (340 bbl/d net to Arrow) of oil over the last 24 hours.GeoPark (GPRK US) C; Target price of US$26 per share: First horizontal well at LL-34 in production at over 3,000 bbl/d – 1Q23 production was 36,578 boe/d.

<ul><li> Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the Montney in late January.</li><li>The Calima #2 test will further define the gas and condensate potential of the Middle Montney.</li><li>Decklar Resources (DKL CN)/San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Production update in Nigeria – Production from the Oza Oil Field has reached ~1,300 bbl/d.</li></ul>

 Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the Montney in late January.The Calima #2 test will further define the gas and condensate potential of the Middle Montney.Decklar Resources (DKL CN)/San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Production update in Nigeria – Production from the Oza Oil Field has reached ~1,300 bbl/d.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.</li>
<li>Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).</li>
<li>The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.
Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).
The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.


Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>A record 42% of active Global managers have zero exposure to the Energy sector</li>
<li>It is the largest sector underweight and a minor allocation among active Global managers, held by fewer funds than the fringe Utilities and Real Estate sectors. </li>
<li>Value managers hold the larger allocations, whilst Aggressive Growth managers have all but abandoned the sector.</li>
</ul>


A record 42% of active Global managers have zero exposure to the Energy sector
It is the largest sector underweight and a minor allocation among active Global managers, held by fewer funds than the fringe Utilities and Real Estate sectors. 
Value managers hold the larger allocations, whilst Aggressive Growth managers have all but abandoned the sector.


Global Energy:  Conviction Underweight or Complacency?

Spain

Repsol S.A., through subsidiaries, explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, refines petroleum, and transports petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company retails gasoline and other products through its chain of gasoline filling stations.  Repsol's petroleum reserves are in Spain, Latin America, Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East and United States.

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Repsol SA (REP SM)

Auctus on Friday - 14/04/2023

GeoPark (GPRK US) C; Target price of US$26 per share: First horizontal well at LL-34 in production at over 3,000 bbl/d – 1Q23 production was 36,578...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 20/01/2023

Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the...

Auctus Advisors

Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong,...

Vermilion Research

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Global Energy: Conviction Underweight or Complacency?

Ownership in the Global Energy sectors is at record lows. Despite rising oil prices, it is the largest sector underweight and a minor allocation...

Steven Holden

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