Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Positive testing results opens the Montney - Calima has so far obtained very good results from the re-testing of the Calima #2 and Calima #3 wells.</li><li>This could de-risk the initial development of the Montney with potential for production in 2024.</li><li>This could also materially increase the likelihood of attracting an industry partner. </li></ul>

Positive testing results opens the Montney - Calima has so far obtained very good results from the re-testing of the Calima #2 and Calima #3 wells.This could de-risk the initial development of the Montney with potential for production in 2024.This could also materially increase the likelihood of attracting an industry partner. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li> Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the Montney in late January.</li><li>The Calima #2 test will further define the gas and condensate potential of the Middle Montney.</li><li>Decklar Resources (DKL CN)/San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Production update in Nigeria – Production from the Oza Oil Field has reached ~1,300 bbl/d.</li></ul>

 Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the Montney in late January.The Calima #2 test will further define the gas and condensate potential of the Middle Montney.Decklar Resources (DKL CN)/San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Production update in Nigeria – Production from the Oza Oil Field has reached ~1,300 bbl/d.

<ul><li>ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Good production rate at Anshof.</li><li>Busy months ahead – Commercial production at Anshof-3 has started at a stable rate of 100 bbl/d (80 bbl/d net to ADX).</li><li>Equinor (EQNR NO): 3Q22 results, increased dividend distribution, additional share buyback – Adjusted net earnings over the period were US$6.7 bn with 2,021 mboe/d production.</li></ul>

ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Good production rate at Anshof.Busy months ahead – Commercial production at Anshof-3 has started at a stable rate of 100 bbl/d (80 bbl/d net to ADX).Equinor (EQNR NO): 3Q22 results, increased dividend distribution, additional share buyback – Adjusted net earnings over the period were US$6.7 bn with 2,021 mboe/d production.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The $19bn EV operation (vs. Repsol's market cap of €19bn) allows Repsol to maintain the majority in a strategic area, crystallizes value (market assigns a higher valuation to the E&amp;P division separately).</li>
<li>The implied valuation by the market is on average $3 billion lower. As usual with a minority stake sale, the market rarely values it at 100%. </li>
<li>I estimate a moderate positive impact (the deal is similar to what was announced in July), value unlocking could theoretically reach €2.5-€3 per share, but I'd take a neutral stance.</li>
</ul>


The $19bn EV operation (vs. Repsol's market cap of €19bn) allows Repsol to maintain the majority in a strategic area, crystallizes value (market assigns a higher valuation to the E&amp;P division separately).
The implied valuation by the market is on average $3 billion lower. As usual with a minority stake sale, the market rarely values it at 100%. 
I estimate a moderate positive impact (the deal is similar to what was announced in July), value unlocking could theoretically reach €2.5-€3 per share, but I'd take a neutral stance.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.</li>
<li>Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).</li>
<li>The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.
Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).
The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.


Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

Spain

Repsol S.A., through subsidiaries, explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, refines petroleum, and transports petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company retails gasoline and other products through its chain of gasoline filling stations.  Repsol's petroleum reserves are in Spain, Latin America, Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East and United States.

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Repsol SA (REP SM)

Auctus on Friday - 17/02/2023

Positive testing results opens the Montney - Calima has so far obtained very good results from the re-testing of the Calima #2 and Calima #3 wells.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 20/01/2023

Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 28/10/2022

Equinor (EQNR NO): 3Q22 results, increased dividend distribution, additional share buyback – Adjusted net earnings over the period were US$6.7 bn...

Auctus Advisors

Repsol: Sale of 25% of E&P Division

The $19bn EV operation (vs. Repsol's market cap of €19bn) allows Repsol to maintain the majority in a strategic area, crystallizes value (market...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong,...

Vermilion Research

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