Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 3 days of ADV on 13 stocks, over 5 days of ADV on 9 stocks and over 10x ADV on 4 stocks. </li>
<li>Shorts have been covering positions on stocks where there are expected to be passive inflows and increasing positions on stocks that are expected to have passive outflows.</li>
</ul>


We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 3 days of ADV on 13 stocks, over 5 days of ADV on 9 stocks and over 10x ADV on 4 stocks. 
Shorts have been covering positions on stocks where there are expected to be passive inflows and increasing positions on stocks that are expected to have passive outflows.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

<ul>
<li>It was a busy Friday with the implementation of the December rebalance for multiple indices. The Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF will continue to rebalance over the next 4 days.</li>
<li>The coming week should be relatively quiet with the announcement of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> changes expected.</li>
<li>There were large inflows to ETFs focused on China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan. There were inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong</a>.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy Friday with the implementation of the December rebalance for multiple indices. The Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF will continue to rebalance over the next 4 days.
The coming week should be relatively quiet with the announcement of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) changes expected.
There were large inflows to ETFs focused on China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan. There were inflows to Hang Seng H Share Index ETF and outflows from Tracker Fund of Hong Kong.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, HSCEI, HSTECH, Haidilao/Super Hi, CSI REIT

<ul>
<li>We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>There could be an addition to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in January following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.</li>
</ul>


We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in January following Pendal Group (PDL AU)'s acquisition by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).

PEXA Group (PXA AU) is a potential inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) if Link Administration (LNK AU)'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.


S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> will merge via a scheme at a gross exchange ratio of 2.0338 SBM shares per GMD share. </li>
<li>The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX peers on an EV/Resource basis. </li>
<li>The likely pushback from SMB shareholders is that the terms were struck from a position of share price weakness. However, the low SMB shareholder voting threshold (50%) will help.</li>
</ul>



St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will merge via a scheme at a gross exchange ratio of 2.0338 SBM shares per GMD share. 
The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX peers on an EV/Resource basis. 
The likely pushback from SMB shareholders is that the terms were struck from a position of share price weakness. However, the low SMB shareholder voting threshold (50%) will help.


Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) And St Barbara (SBM AU) Merger

<ul>
<li>At the September rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>Potential adds/deletes with large flow and impact include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopping-centres-australasia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20100:1" rel="noopener">Shopping Cntrs Austrls (SCP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sayona-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1589:1" rel="noopener">Sayona Mining (SYA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-social-infrastructure-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8288:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Shorts have increased significantly on a few stocks over the last few weeks, indicating that there could be some pre-positioning on these stocks.</li>
</ul>


At the September rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
Potential adds/deletes with large flow and impact include Shopping Cntrs Austrls (SCP AU), Sayona Mining (SYA AU), Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU).
Shorts have increased significantly on a few stocks over the last few weeks, indicating that there could be some pre-positioning on these stocks.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

Australia

Resolute Mining Limited explores for, produces and develops gold in Mali and Queensland, Australia. The Company's gold exploration projects include Syama and Ravenswood.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Resolute Mining (RSG AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March. Lots of...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, HSCEI, HSTECH, Haidilao/Super Hi, CSI REIT

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

There could be an adhoc ASX200 inclusion in Jan. Then there could be 1 change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the ASX200...

Brian Freitas

Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) And St Barbara (SBM AU) Merger

The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

There are no changes expected for the ASX20 & ASX50, maybe a couple for the ASX100, more for the ASX200 and many more for the ASX300 index at the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March. Lots of...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, HSCEI, HSTECH, Haidilao/Super Hi, CSI REIT

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

There could be an adhoc ASX200 inclusion in Jan. Then there could be 1 change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the ASX200...

Brian Freitas

Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) And St Barbara (SBM AU) Merger

The deal metrics are favourable for GMD shareholders. The gross exchange ratio is attractive and values GMD at a slight premium to mid-cap ASX...

Arun George

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected

There are no changes expected for the ASX20 & ASX50, maybe a couple for the ASX100, more for the ASX200 and many more for the ASX300 index at the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected