IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since KKR's JPY4,750 preconditional offer was announced, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> shares have traded above terms on 75% of days, with the offer due to open in late October.</li>
<li>Pressure for a bump: Results beat guidance, peers have rerated, the offer lacks a control premium compared to peer multiples, IFA valuations look stale and competing-offer clauses.</li>
<li>However, KKR can likely close without a bump: minimum acceptance is within reach and could be lowered, no activist has emerged, an interloper looks unlikely, and the price is defensible.</li>
</ul>


Since KKR's JPY4,750 preconditional offer was announced, Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) shares have traded above terms on 75% of days, with the offer due to open in late October.
Pressure for a bump: Results beat guidance, peers have rerated, the offer lacks a control premium compared to peer multiples, IFA valuations look stale and competing-offer clauses.
However, KKR can likely close without a bump: minimum acceptance is within reach and could be lowered, no activist has emerged, an interloper looks unlikely, and the price is defensible.


Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Bump Pressure Builds, but KKR Holds the Cards

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Should still be more upside after Micron’s AH numbers yesterday with many Japanese SPE names still a ways from their recent highs after correcting earlier in the week.</li>
<li>Still yet to see Furukawa, SEI and SWCC play catch up to Fujikura after strong guidance revision this week.</li>
<li>A negative read for JP game developers such as Nintendo and Sony after Microsoft announced price hikes for its Xbox.</li>
</ul>


Should still be more upside after Micron’s AH numbers yesterday with many Japanese SPE names still a ways from their recent highs after correcting earlier in the week.
Still yet to see Furukawa, SEI and SWCC play catch up to Fujikura after strong guidance revision this week.
A negative read for JP game developers such as Nintendo and Sony after Microsoft announced price hikes for its Xbox.


Japan Morning Connection: Room to Run with SPEs Still Below Recent Highs

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 rebalance to come in August 2027 based on trading data as of end-September 2026.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 rebalance to come in August 2027 based on trading data as of end-September 2026.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2027: End-Sep 2026 Ranks

<ul>
<li>Sandisk, other memory and most tech saw a big risk-off move lower, although weakness will likely recover early next week.</li>
<li>Kioxia still predicting a severe NAND supply/demand imbalance for 2026, but will they add capacity?</li>
<li>Management of the most hated FA name in Japan have finally signaled they are willing to improve their cap allocation.</li>
</ul>


Sandisk, other memory and most tech saw a big risk-off move lower, although weakness will likely recover early next week.
Kioxia still predicting a severe NAND supply/demand imbalance for 2026, but will they add capacity?
Management of the most hated FA name in Japan have finally signaled they are willing to improve their cap allocation.


Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia Takes the Wind Out of AI's Sails

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.</li>
<li>Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.
Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500


Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Japan

Resonac Holdings Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products. The Company produces synthetic resins, petrochemical products, inorganics, and other related products. Resonac Holdings also produces ceramics, metals, carbon, electronic materials, and other products.

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Resonac Holdings (4004 JP)

Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Bump Pressure Builds, but KKR Holds the Cards

The tender launch has moved to around late November, from early October. Approvals still outstanding: China’s competition clearance and Japan’s...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Room to Run with SPEs Still Below Recent Highs

Japanese SPEs have room to run as AI rally yet to be fully priced in, with relative s/t laggards including Lasertec, TEL and Resonac.

Andrew Jackson

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2027: End-Sep 2026 Ranks

In total, there are 33 Potential ADDs and 34 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. It is early in the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Morning Connection: Kioxia Takes the Wind Out of AI's Sails

SMC numbers were a positive, with management likely to engage in big buybacks. With AI related selling off, power/industrial semis and Apple...

Andrew Jackson

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact. Actionable Themes: Communications, Manufacturing (Robotics and Batteries),...

Vermilion Research

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