Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Diesel prices have risen 45% from their June lows, and the BDIY also continues to surge, compressing the margins of iron ore players.</li>
<li>China's June import volumes remained strong at 112 million tons, up 6.3% YoY, with Australian imports strengthening to 71 million tons ( 63% of imports) </li>
<li>Read our recent report on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-ltd-fex-au-q4-fy26-concall-update-record-volumes-sharp-margin-compression" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:247547" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources Ltd (FEX AU) Q4 FY26 Concall Update: Record Volumes, Sharp Margin Compression</a> and gleanings from Rio/BHP operationals. </li>
</ul>


Diesel prices have risen 45% from their June lows, and the BDIY also continues to surge, compressing the margins of iron ore players.
China's June import volumes remained strong at 112 million tons, up 6.3% YoY, with Australian imports strengthening to 71 million tons ( 63% of imports) 
Read our recent report on Fenix Resources Ltd (FEX AU) Q4 FY26 Concall Update: Record Volumes, Sharp Margin Compression and gleanings from Rio/BHP operationals. 


Iron Ore: Diesels 45% Ascent From June Lows And China's Strong Imports

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 28th September, published on the 2nd October.
</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Interactive Media". Net shorts increased A$0.5bn week-on-week. 
</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/artrya-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41151:1" rel="noopener">Artrya (AYA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/echoiq-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8230:1" rel="noopener">ECHOiQ (EIQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catalyst-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1" rel="noopener">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium (CXO AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 28th September, published on the 2nd October.

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Interactive Media". Net shorts increased A$0.5bn week-on-week. 

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: BHP Group (BHP AU), Steadfast (SDF AU), Artrya (AYA AU), ECHOiQ (EIQ AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), and Core Lithium (CXO AU).


Aussie Shorts [28 Sep 2026]: BHP Group, Steadfast, Artrya, ECHOiQ, Catalyst Metals, Core Lithium

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>  targets a 4% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The BHP (BHP AU) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long Rio Tinto (RIO AU) and short BHP Group (BHP AU)  targets a 4% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU) Vs BHP (BHP AU): Pair Trade Opens Between Mining Leaders

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2024-high-conviction-junior-copper-miners" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:122425" rel="noopener">2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners</a> garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide an update on our favorite junior copper names.</li>
<li>Copper prices have started to to tick up (+5% YTD) on the back of gold making new all-time highs late in 1Q24, and more importantly squeezed global supply.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN) </a>has performed strongest +22% while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arras-minerals-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40384:1" rel="noopener">Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY)</a> has been a laggard at -18% YTD.</li>
</ul>


Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide an update on our favorite junior copper names.
Copper prices have started to to tick up (+5% YTD) on the back of gold making new all-time highs late in 1Q24, and more importantly squeezed global supply.

Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +22% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -18% YTD.


Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Rio–Glencore failed not on strategy but arithmetic: at realistic synergies, premiums above low-20% compressed post-deal returns toward or below Rio’s 8.5% WACC, leaving no margin for execution risk.</li>
<li>Glencore’s ~40% premium ask was internally rational given governance asymmetry, but mechanically incompatible with Rio’s return discipline once exchange ratios, peer multiples and copper delivery risk were fully quantified.</li>
<li>The case reinforces a higher M&amp;A bar in mining: visible, self-funded synergies and deferred value recognition now matter more than scale, copper optionality or strategic narratives.</li>
</ul>


Rio–Glencore failed not on strategy but arithmetic: at realistic synergies, premiums above low-20% compressed post-deal returns toward or below Rio’s 8.5% WACC, leaving no margin for execution risk.
Glencore’s ~40% premium ask was internally rational given governance asymmetry, but mechanically incompatible with Rio’s return discipline once exchange ratios, peer multiples and copper delivery risk were fully quantified.
The case reinforces a higher M&amp;A bar in mining: visible, self-funded synergies and deferred value recognition now matter more than scale, copper optionality or strategic narratives.


Rio–Glencore: Why the Numbers Never Cleared and What It Means for Mining M&A

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Iron Ore: Diesels 45% Ascent From June Lows And China's Strong Imports

Iron ore cost push from diesel and freight is now back in play, and prices will remain at the 100 USD/ton level as Chinese imports remain strong...

Sameer Taneja

Aussie Shorts [28 Sep 2026]: BHP Group, Steadfast, Artrya, ECHOiQ, Catalyst Metals, Core Lithium

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Interactive...

David Blennerhassett

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) Vs BHP (BHP AU): Pair Trade Opens Between Mining Leaders

4% target return as a statistical divergence emerges between Australia's two largest diversified miners. Essential for quantitative traders seeking...

Gaudenz Schneider

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio–Glencore: Why the Numbers Never Cleared and What It Means for Mining M&A

Rio–Glencore didn’t fail on strategy but on numbers. Using undisturbed prices, exchange ratios and WACC, even modest premiums left no return...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore: Diesels 45% Ascent From June Lows And China's Strong Imports

Iron ore cost push from diesel and freight is now back in play, and prices will remain at the 100 USD/ton level as Chinese imports remain strong...

Sameer Taneja

Aussie Shorts [28 Sep 2026]: BHP Group, Steadfast, Artrya, ECHOiQ, Catalyst Metals, Core Lithium

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Interactive...

David Blennerhassett

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) Vs BHP (BHP AU): Pair Trade Opens Between Mining Leaders

4% target return as a statistical divergence emerges between Australia's two largest diversified miners. Essential for quantitative traders seeking...

Gaudenz Schneider

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

​Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio–Glencore: Why the Numbers Never Cleared and What It Means for Mining M&A

Rio–Glencore didn’t fail on strategy but on numbers. Using undisturbed prices, exchange ratios and WACC, even modest premiums left no return...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.