Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</strong></a> has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241007/pdf/068tbs6fnf3fnj.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> it has approached <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)/</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">(ALTM US)</a></strong> regarding a potential acquisition. </li>
<li>No Offer Price has been announced; however a proposed bid with a 30%+ premium, on top of last week's 11% bounce, has been rumoured. That implies a price of ~$6/share.</li>
<li>Given shares were trading ~A$10/share in January this year, one Aussie-based fund reckons such an Offer would be highly opportunistic; and that a bid 2.5-3x higher is reasonable. </li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has confirmed it has approached Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)/(ALTM US) regarding a potential acquisition. 
No Offer Price has been announced; however a proposed bid with a 30%+ premium, on top of last week's 11% bounce, has been rumoured. That implies a price of ~$6/share.
Given shares were trading ~A$10/share in January this year, one Aussie-based fund reckons such an Offer would be highly opportunistic; and that a bid 2.5-3x higher is reasonable. 


Rio Tinto Taps Arcadium As Lithium Prices Sag

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 27th): Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);
Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> has been roaring over the past three weeks on the back of ...no official news!</li>
<li>As we highlighted in our prior insights we expected an arbitration ruling by late 3Q24, but there has been no news published by Entree or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> </li>
<li>Volume spike and price action remind us of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022.</li>
</ul>



Entree Resources (ETG CN) has been roaring over the past three weeks on the back of ...no official news!
As we highlighted in our prior insights we expected an arbitration ruling by late 3Q24, but there has been no news published by Entree or Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) 
Volume spike and price action remind us of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022.


Entree Resources: +84% YTD on Arbitration Leak? Or Rio Tinto M&A Speculation?

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 20th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD26.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, Macquarie, Australia And New Zealand Banking, Technology One, Computershare.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 20th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD26.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, Macquarie, Australia And New Zealand Banking, Technology One, Computershare.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 20th): Goodman, Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, Macquarie

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Rio Tinto Taps Arcadium As Lithium Prices Sag

Arcadium IS in play. And the share price has recently rebounded from a multi-year low. I'd be getting involved around here, and on any weakness.

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 27th): Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Entree Resources: +84% YTD on Arbitration Leak? Or Rio Tinto M&A Speculation?

Entree Resources (ETG CN) surges without official news, reminiscent of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022, as investors await arbitration ruling with...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 20th): Goodman, Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, Macquarie

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio Tinto Taps Arcadium As Lithium Prices Sag

Arcadium IS in play. And the share price has recently rebounded from a multi-year low. I'd be getting involved around here, and on any weakness.

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 27th): Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Entree Resources: +84% YTD on Arbitration Leak? Or Rio Tinto M&A Speculation?

​Entree Resources (ETG CN) surges without official news, reminiscent of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022, as investors await arbitration ruling with...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 20th): Goodman, Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, Macquarie

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Entree Resources (ETG CN) surges without official news, reminiscent of Turquoise Hill buyout in 2022, as investors await arbitration ruling with...