Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aluminum price volatility has surged on the conflict in the Middle East as the region comprises a significant proportion of smelting capacity for the metal </li>
<li>Pricing in higher 2026E aluminum has boosted our valuation moderately, but we still see risks to copper, which has started to roll over, and iron ore, inline with consensus</li>
<li>Our SOTP valuation of Rio implies the market has been pricing in somewhat aggressive multiples, with a decline to only moderate, not bearish, levels, still implying downside</li>
</ul>


Aluminum price volatility has surged on the conflict in the Middle East as the region comprises a significant proportion of smelting capacity for the metal 
Pricing in higher 2026E aluminum has boosted our valuation moderately, but we still see risks to copper, which has started to roll over, and iron ore, inline with consensus
Our SOTP valuation of Rio implies the market has been pricing in somewhat aggressive multiples, with a decline to only moderate, not bearish, levels, still implying downside


Rio Tinto: Volatile Aluminum and SOTP Downside Considerations

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>Copper revenue surged +47.9% YoY in FY2025 to US$13.7bn, now accounting for 23.8% of group revenue (vs. 17.3% in FY2023), the highest copper revenue share in at least 17 years.</li>
<li>Copper EBITDA reached a record US$7.4bn in FY2025, representing 32.9% of group EBITDA —up from 15.7% just two years prior — signalling a fundamental mix shift within the portfolio.</li>
<li>Management explicitly declined a full-perimeter merger with Glencore on value-discipline grounds, reinforcing its strategic focus on organic copper growth and selective partnering in Chile and South America.</li>
</ul>


Copper revenue surged +47.9% YoY in FY2025 to US$13.7bn, now accounting for 23.8% of group revenue (vs. 17.3% in FY2023), the highest copper revenue share in at least 17 years.
Copper EBITDA reached a record US$7.4bn in FY2025, representing 32.9% of group EBITDA —up from 15.7% just two years prior — signalling a fundamental mix shift within the portfolio.
Management explicitly declined a full-perimeter merger with Glencore on value-discipline grounds, reinforcing its strategic focus on organic copper growth and selective partnering in Chile and South America.


THE COPPER CATALYST: Rio Tinto's Strategic Pivot Toward Copper-Led Growth

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>M&amp;A reactivates DLC risk: Rio–Glencore talks triggered rare compression in the Rio Ltd/Plc spread, highlighting how strategic actions — not activism — force re-pricing of dual-listed structures.</li>
<li>Structure over quality: Holdco and DLC discounts tightened only where governance or M&amp;A pressure emerged; high-quality portfolios alone proved insufficient to drive convergence across 2025.</li>
<li>Event-Driven optionality remains: Wide discounts persist where enforcement is delayed, but asymmetric upside remains where regulators or corporates retain credible power to force structural outcomes.</li>
</ul>


M&amp;A reactivates DLC risk: Rio–Glencore talks triggered rare compression in the Rio Ltd/Plc spread, highlighting how strategic actions — not activism — force re-pricing of dual-listed structures.
Structure over quality: Holdco and DLC discounts tightened only where governance or M&amp;A pressure emerged; high-quality portfolios alone proved insufficient to drive convergence across 2025.
Event-Driven optionality remains: Wide discounts persist where enforcement is delayed, but asymmetric upside remains where regulators or corporates retain credible power to force structural outcomes.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2026 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a>'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.</li>
<li>Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, via an all-scrip Offer.</li>
<li>Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. </li>
</ul>


Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, Rio Tinto (RIO AU)'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.
Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), via an all-scrip Offer.
Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. 


<ul>
<li>This price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is WAY too light. Hold, don't sell. If it trades below or at terms, buy more. Quickly. Expect it will go higher.</li>
<li>Perhaps the simplest solution is to offer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore (GLEN LN)</a> shareholders the option of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Ltd (RIO AU)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio PLC (RIO LN)</a>, which would naturally compress the dual-class spread.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simcere-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29186:1" rel="noopener">Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK)</a> is spinning-off and listing 83.1%-held Simcere Zaiming on the HKEx. Often, the sum of the parts is larger than the whole. This may not hold here.</li>
</ul>


This price for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is WAY too light. Hold, don't sell. If it trades below or at terms, buy more. Quickly. Expect it will go higher.
Perhaps the simplest solution is to offer Glencore (GLEN LN) shareholders the option of Rio Ltd (RIO AU) or Rio PLC (RIO LN), which would naturally compress the dual-class spread.

Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) is spinning-off and listing 83.1%-held Simcere Zaiming on the HKEx. Often, the sum of the parts is larger than the whole. This may not hold here.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Rio/Glencore, Simcere Pharma, Mandom Corp, Qube, Jinke Smart

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Rio Tinto: Volatile Aluminum and SOTP Downside Considerations

Pricing in higher aluminum has boosted our valuation, but our SOTP with moderate multiples still indicates downside and implies somewhat bullish...

Graeme Cunningham

THE COPPER CATALYST: Rio Tinto's Strategic Pivot Toward Copper-Led Growth

The race is on. Rio, BHP, Glencore & peers are all pivoting hard to copper as the energy transition supercharges demand. Who executes best will...

Sameer Taneja

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2026 Report

Rio’s Glencore talks finally put real pressure on the dual-listed structure, driving rare spread compression. Across holdcos, January confirms the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Glencore Musings

Ahead of the 5th Feb PUSU deadline, Rio's UK investors are (reportedly) pushing the Glencore merger to maintain its UK listing. Still, IF the DLC...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Rio/Glencore, Simcere Pharma, Mandom Corp, Qube, Jinke Smart

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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