Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).</li>
<li>Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. </li>
<li>With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. </li>
</ul>


After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).
Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. 
With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. 


Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. </li>
<li>Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&amp;A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.</li>
<li>A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post-unification share price, M&amp;A, and franking credits.</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. 
Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&amp;A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.
A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post-unification share price, M&amp;A, and franking credits.


Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the upcoming AGM, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC</a> shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.</li>
<li>If the Unification completes, S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-100-index-ukx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22904:1" rel="noopener">UKX Index (UKX INDEX)</a> trackers will sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a>. Net positive.</li>
</ul>


At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
If the Unification completes, S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul>
<li>Deterra has made a deal to acquire Trident Royalties, a UK listed royalty company, at a 42% premium to its undisturbed price</li>
<li>The deal includes assuming Trident's debt and will result in Deterra cutting its dividend payout ratio in half from FY 25 going forward, upsetting current shareholders</li>
<li>Deterra's fully frank dividends have attracted Australian institutional shareholders, who may be affected by the change in dividend policy and potential impact on share price</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


Deterra has made a deal to acquire Trident Royalties, a UK listed royalty company, at a 42% premium to its undisturbed price
The deal includes assuming Trident's debt and will result in Deterra cutting its dividend payout ratio in half from FY 25 going forward, upsetting current shareholders
Deterra's fully frank dividends have attracted Australian institutional shareholders, who may be affected by the change in dividend policy and potential impact on share price

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Technically, the index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,376/1,370 points and the resistance at 1,387 points (25-day EMA)/1,380 points, based on yesterday's technical sell signal that occurred after it created a lower low point and fell below the major support, which increases the likelihood of a further decline.</li><li>Keep a close watch for hints about the possible trajectory of the fed funds rate from the speech by the Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic (voter), who is expected to reiterate his view calling for no more than three rate cuts this year and patience regarding a dovish shift in the Fed's monetary policy.</li><li>The minutes may continue to indicate that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates.</li></ul>

Technically, the index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,376/1,370 points and the resistance at 1,387 points (25-day EMA)/1,380 points, based on yesterday's technical sell signal that occurred after it created a lower low point and fell below the major support, which increases the likelihood of a further decline.Keep a close watch for hints about the possible trajectory of the fed funds rate from the speech by the Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic (voter), who is expected to reiterate his view calling for no more than three rate cuts this year and patience regarding a dovish shift in the Fed's monetary policy.The minutes may continue to indicate that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates.

Keep a Close Watch on US FOMC Minutes and Earnings of NVIDIA and HSBC

Australia

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

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Rio Tinto (RIO US)

Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

We compile mine production plans for 12 major copper producers, which account for more than 40% of the refined copper produced. We also analyze the...

Sameer Taneja

Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post...

Arun George

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

Palliser Capital is pushing for Unification of RIO AU/ RIO LN. We are still a long way away from possible completion. There will be big index flows...

Brian Freitas

Uranium Grows, Lithium Woes

Deterra is considering acquiring Trident royalties in a deal valued at 49 pence per share, which would involve assuming Trident's debt and cutting...

Money of Mine

Keep a Close Watch on US FOMC Minutes and Earnings of NVIDIA and HSBC

Technically, the index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,376/1,370 points and the resistance at 1,387 points (25-day EMA)/1,380 points,...

Krungthai XSpring

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