Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: In Australia, currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>Copper delivered 36% of divisional EBITDA in H1 FY26 (US$5.7bn, 66% margin), up from 6.5% in H2 FY23, as Oyu Tolgoi underground ramps up.</li>
<li>Iron ore's share has halved to 43%, with EBITDA/t down 65% from its peak; capex is rotating to Simandou, the Pilbara replacement, lithium, and aluminum, while copper enters harvest.</li>
<li>Valuation at 13.7x FY26e P/E, 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 5.1% yield. We analyze the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc-057cb83c-c6f0-460f-976f-c58c789ef28c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28506:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO US)</a> pivot </li>
</ul>


Copper delivered 36% of divisional EBITDA in H1 FY26 (US$5.7bn, 66% margin), up from 6.5% in H2 FY23, as Oyu Tolgoi underground ramps up.
Iron ore's share has halved to 43%, with EBITDA/t down 65% from its peak; capex is rotating to Simandou, the Pilbara replacement, lithium, and aluminum, while copper enters harvest.
Valuation at 13.7x FY26e P/E, 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 5.1% yield. We analyze the Rio Tinto (RIO US) pivot 


Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Evolving Beyond Iron Ore as Copper Becomes the Second Earnings Engine

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eight pairtrade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eight pairtrade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Sep 2026)

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>U.S. Copper Market Gap: 1.3 Mt refined copper supply gap due to limited 0.4 Mt refining capacity against 1.7 Mt demand, despite 1.1 Mt mined ore.</li>
<li>Impact on Market and Users: 50% tariff may raise prices 15–25%, adding $200–400/vehicle and 3–5% construction costs, while boosting refining investment.</li>
<li>Way Forward: Expand refining capacity, streamline permitting, and ensure policy stability to process exported ore and cut import reliance by 2030.</li>
</ul>


U.S. Copper Market Gap: 1.3 Mt refined copper supply gap due to limited 0.4 Mt refining capacity against 1.7 Mt demand, despite 1.1 Mt mined ore.
Impact on Market and Users: 50% tariff may raise prices 15–25%, adding $200–400/vehicle and 3–5% construction costs, while boosting refining investment.
Way Forward: Expand refining capacity, streamline permitting, and ensure policy stability to process exported ore and cut import reliance by 2030.


U.S. Copper: Tariff Impact & Refining Expansion Opportunities

Australia

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

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Rio Tinto (RIO US)

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Evolving Beyond Iron Ore as Copper Becomes the Second Earnings Engine

Rio Tinto is becoming a dual-engine miner: copper now accounts for 36% of divisional EBITDA on 17% of capex, while iron ore needs higher...

Sameer Taneja

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Sep 2026)

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

U.S. Copper: Tariff Impact & Refining Expansion Opportunities

Limited refining capacity in the U.S. leads to a copper supply gap, impacting market prices and users, with a call to expand capacity and reduce...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)

​Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Evolving Beyond Iron Ore as Copper Becomes the Second Earnings Engine

Rio Tinto is becoming a dual-engine miner: copper now accounts for 36% of divisional EBITDA on 17% of capex, while iron ore needs higher...

Sameer Taneja

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Sep 2026)

​Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

U.S. Copper: Tariff Impact & Refining Expansion Opportunities

​Limited refining capacity in the U.S. leads to a copper supply gap, impacting market prices and users, with a call to expand capacity and reduce...

Rahul Jain

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Limited refining capacity in the U.S. leads to a copper supply gap, impacting market prices and users, with a call to expand capacity and reduce...