Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">(RIO LN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc-057cb83c-c6f0-460f-976f-c58c789ef28c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28506:1" rel="noopener">(RIO US)</a> is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.
</li>
<li>
Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.</li>
<li>
Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) / (RIO LN) / (RIO US) is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.


Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.

Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper strength continues, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and Arcadium integration, with volumes trending toward the higher end of guidance.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto is gradually shifting its portfolio toward copper and lithium to reduce reliance on iron ore and align with energy transition demand.</li>
<li>FY25 guidance remains intact across key commodities, with improved operating momentum and diversified growth positioning the company for a resilient second half.</li>
</ul>


Copper strength continues, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and Arcadium integration, with volumes trending toward the higher end of guidance.
Rio Tinto is gradually shifting its portfolio toward copper and lithium to reduce reliance on iron ore and align with energy transition demand.
FY25 guidance remains intact across key commodities, with improved operating momentum and diversified growth positioning the company for a resilient second half.


Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11226:1" rel="noopener">Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US)</a> launched a cash takeover bid of 2 CAD/share (85% premium) on Horizon Copper.</li>
<li>Recall, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42909:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Copper (HCU CN)</a> has a 25% controlling stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a>is too bureaucratic to counterbid as the CEO transition paralyses the organization.</li>
</ul>



Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US) launched a cash takeover bid of 2 CAD/share (85% premium) on Horizon Copper.
Recall, Horizon Copper (HCU CN) has a 25% controlling stake in Entree Resources (ETG CN). 

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)is too bureaucratic to counterbid as the CEO transition paralyses the organization.


Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. </li>
<li>Discounts (30 May): GBL, 37.9% (vs 35.3%, 2 May); Heineken Holding, 12.5% (vs. 12.3%); Industrivärden C, 9.6% (vs. 9.1%); Investor B, 9.6% (vs. 5.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.5% (vs. 29.2%); </li>
<li>Rio DLC 22.2% (vs. 25.8%); Vivendi 45% (vs. 46%).  What seems interesting: Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. 
Discounts (30 May): GBL, 37.9% (vs 35.3%, 2 May); Heineken Holding, 12.5% (vs. 12.3%); Industrivärden C, 9.6% (vs. 9.1%); Investor B, 9.6% (vs. 5.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.5% (vs. 29.2%); 
Rio DLC 22.2% (vs. 25.8%); Vivendi 45% (vs. 46%).  What seems interesting: Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto has been confirmed as the preferred partner for Chile’s Salares Altoandinos project, marking a major step in scaling its lithium ambitions.</li>
<li>Lithium demand is expected to grow over 5x by 2040, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, though rising supply and tech shifts may cap long-term pricing.</li>
<li>Zijin Mining is a preferred play given its diversified  -copper and gold and expanding lithium footprint &amp; lower valuation. Albemarle could  face pressure from intensifying competition, rising low-cost supply etc.</li>
</ul>


Rio Tinto has been confirmed as the preferred partner for Chile’s Salares Altoandinos project, marking a major step in scaling its lithium ambitions.
Lithium demand is expected to grow over 5x by 2040, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, though rising supply and tech shifts may cap long-term pricing.
Zijin Mining is a preferred play given its diversified  -copper and gold and expanding lithium footprint &amp; lower valuation. Albemarle could  face pressure from intensifying competition, rising low-cost supply etc.


Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

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Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

Reminder: Rio Tinto (RIO AU) reports today at 16:15 AEST (Sydney) / 07:15 BST (London) / 02:15 EDT (New York). Since yesterday’s publication, the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

Rio Tinto's copper strength and diversification strategy position the company for resilient growth in the second half of FY25.

Rahul Jain

Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree

Royal Gold Inc offers 2 CAD/share (85% premium) in cash takeover bid for Horizon Copper, with Rio Tinto PLC unable to counterbid due to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. What seems interesting:...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

Reminder: Rio Tinto (RIO AU) reports today at 16:15 AEST (Sydney) / 07:15 BST (London) / 02:15 EDT (New York). Since yesterday’s publication, the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

​Rio Tinto's copper strength and diversification strategy position the company for resilient growth in the second half of FY25.

Rahul Jain

Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree

​Royal Gold Inc offers 2 CAD/share (85% premium) in cash takeover bid for Horizon Copper, with Rio Tinto PLC unable to counterbid due to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. What seems interesting:...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

​Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...

Rahul Jain

Rio Tinto's copper strength and diversification strategy position the company for resilient growth in the second half of FY25.

Royal Gold Inc offers 2 CAD/share (85% premium) in cash takeover bid for Horizon Copper, with Rio Tinto PLC unable to counterbid due to...

Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...