Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11226:1" rel="noopener">Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US)</a> launched a cash takeover bid of 2 CAD/share (85% premium) on Horizon Copper.</li>
<li>Recall, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42909:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Copper (HCU CN)</a> has a 25% controlling stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a>is too bureaucratic to counterbid as the CEO transition paralyses the organization.</li>
</ul>



Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US) launched a cash takeover bid of 2 CAD/share (85% premium) on Horizon Copper.
Recall, Horizon Copper (HCU CN) has a 25% controlling stake in Entree Resources (ETG CN). 

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)is too bureaucratic to counterbid as the CEO transition paralyses the organization.


Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. </li>
<li>Discounts (30 May): GBL, 37.9% (vs 35.3%, 2 May); Heineken Holding, 12.5% (vs. 12.3%); Industrivärden C, 9.6% (vs. 9.1%); Investor B, 9.6% (vs. 5.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.5% (vs. 29.2%); </li>
<li>Rio DLC 22.2% (vs. 25.8%); Vivendi 45% (vs. 46%).  What seems interesting: Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. 
Discounts (30 May): GBL, 37.9% (vs 35.3%, 2 May); Heineken Holding, 12.5% (vs. 12.3%); Industrivärden C, 9.6% (vs. 9.1%); Investor B, 9.6% (vs. 5.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.5% (vs. 29.2%); 
Rio DLC 22.2% (vs. 25.8%); Vivendi 45% (vs. 46%).  What seems interesting: Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto has been confirmed as the preferred partner for Chile’s Salares Altoandinos project, marking a major step in scaling its lithium ambitions.</li>
<li>Lithium demand is expected to grow over 5x by 2040, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, though rising supply and tech shifts may cap long-term pricing.</li>
<li>Zijin Mining is a preferred play given its diversified  -copper and gold and expanding lithium footprint &amp; lower valuation. Albemarle could  face pressure from intensifying competition, rising low-cost supply etc.</li>
</ul>


Rio Tinto has been confirmed as the preferred partner for Chile’s Salares Altoandinos project, marking a major step in scaling its lithium ambitions.
Lithium demand is expected to grow over 5x by 2040, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, though rising supply and tech shifts may cap long-term pricing.
Zijin Mining is a preferred play given its diversified  -copper and gold and expanding lithium footprint &amp; lower valuation. Albemarle could  face pressure from intensifying competition, rising low-cost supply etc.


Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

<ul>
<li>The shareholder vote failed, but momentum builds: Despite only 19.35% support, institutional backing signals growing pressure on Rio Tinto’s board to revisit the dual-listed company structure in future.</li>
<li>Valuation gap widens, thesis strengthens: With RIO Ltd trading at a 23.2% premium over RIO plc, the economic case for unification — and the relative value trade — becomes increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>Not statistical arbitrage, but event-driven optionality: The long plc / short Ltd setup lacks persistent mean reversion but offers asymmetric upside if governance shifts, tax changes, or structural catalysts force convergence.</li>
</ul>


The shareholder vote failed, but momentum builds: Despite only 19.35% support, institutional backing signals growing pressure on Rio Tinto’s board to revisit the dual-listed company structure in future.
Valuation gap widens, thesis strengthens: With RIO Ltd trading at a 23.2% premium over RIO plc, the economic case for unification — and the relative value trade — becomes increasingly compelling.
Not statistical arbitrage, but event-driven optionality: The long plc / short Ltd setup lacks persistent mean reversion but offers asymmetric upside if governance shifts, tax changes, or structural catalysts force convergence.


Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK incorporation.</li>
<li>BHP's removal from the FTSE 100 in 2022 highlights the importance of maintaining a primary UK listing over UK incorporation alone.</li>
<li>FTSE 100 inclusion supports Rio Tinto’s access to UK and European capital markets, enhancing liquidity and flexibility for future share issuances.</li>
</ul>


Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK incorporation.
BHP's removal from the FTSE 100 in 2022 highlights the importance of maintaining a primary UK listing over UK incorporation alone.
FTSE 100 inclusion supports Rio Tinto’s access to UK and European capital markets, enhancing liquidity and flexibility for future share issuances.


Mine Over Matter: Will Rio Stay in the FTSE 100?

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)

Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree

Royal Gold Inc offers 2 CAD/share (85% premium) in cash takeover bid for Horizon Copper, with Rio Tinto PLC unable to counterbid due to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. What seems interesting:...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...

Rahul Jain

Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

Rio Tinto’s dual listing trades at a 23% gap—structurally unjustified and politically fragile. Long plc / short Ltd offers asymmetric, catalyst...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Mine Over Matter: Will Rio Stay in the FTSE 100?

Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree

​Royal Gold Inc offers 2 CAD/share (85% premium) in cash takeover bid for Horizon Copper, with Rio Tinto PLC unable to counterbid due to...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. What seems interesting:...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto Doubles Down on Lithium: A Late Entrant with Long-Term Intent

​Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...

Rahul Jain

Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

Rio Tinto’s dual listing trades at a 23% gap—structurally unjustified and politically fragile. Long plc / short Ltd offers asymmetric, catalyst...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Mine Over Matter: Will Rio Stay in the FTSE 100?

​Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Royal Gold Inc offers 2 CAD/share (85% premium) in cash takeover bid for Horizon Copper, with Rio Tinto PLC unable to counterbid due to...

Rio Tinto expands lithium ambitions - EVs & energy storage demand growth. Zijin Mining favored for diversified portfolio, Albemarle may face...

Rio Tinto could remain in the FTSE 100 if it retains a premium London listing and meets FTSE Russell's UK nationality test, despite losing UK...