Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (1566213D HK)</a> is a biopharmaceutical company and a non-wholly owned subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>, a 61% shareholder. In July 2019, Henlius resubmitted its application to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise a rumoured $500 million.<div class="content-highlight">Henlius’ core products include commercialised and near-commercial stage biosimilars. In China, Henlius’ core products will address four out of the top five largest biosimilars by forecasted sales revenue from 2023 to 2030, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Overall, we believe that most of the core products have strong prospects.</div>

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (1566213D HK) is a biopharmaceutical company and a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK), a 61% shareholder. In July 2019, Henlius resubmitted its application to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise a rumoured $500 million.Henlius’ core products include commercialised and near-commercial stage biosimilars. In China, Henlius’ core products will address four out of the top five largest biosimilars by forecasted sales revenue from 2023 to 2030, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Overall, we believe that most of the core products have strong prospects.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech IPO Initiation: Going Large

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight"><h2>The potential for Merck and Roche looks underappreciated.</h2></div><hr>Innovation in immuno-oncology drugs has supported the moats for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merck-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1130:1">Merck &amp; Co Inc. (MRK US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roche-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:976:1">Roche Holding Ltd (ROG VX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bristol-myers-squibb-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1133:1">Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astrazeneca-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21824:1">AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN)</a>, and we expect expansion into the adjuvant/neoadjuvant settings to strengthen these moats. We project the lung adjuvant/neoadjuvant market to expand the potential by close to $10 billion in annual sales (not probability-weighted) by 2027, adding to almost $40 billion projected in the latestage metastatic settings. We estimate an 85% probability of success in this early-treatment setting based on early clinical data and the strength of the drugs in the late-stage setting. We view Merck and Roche as best positioned in the adjuvant setting due to a first-mover advantage with upcoming clinical data in 2020-21. While Bristol and Astra have earlier data in 2020 in the neoadjuvant setting, we are skeptical that these neoadjuvant studies without combination adjuvant chemotherapy will show strong enough efficacy to be competitive. Overall, including both early- and late-stage settings, we believe the potential of immuno-oncology drug sales is most underappreciated for Merck and Roche, and we see both of these companies as undervalued.<hr><h2>Key Points</h2><ul>
<li>Merck's and Roche's potential in immuno-oncology looks underappreciated versus consensus expectations, and the addition of the adjuvant lung potential strengthens the firms' positioning.</li>
<li>We estimate the lung neoadjuvant/adjuvant market share for Merck (35%), Roche (35%), AstraZeneca (15%), and Bristol-Myers (15%) based on timing and design of clinical studies, early-stage study results, and data in the metastatic disease setting.</li>
<li>Successful studies in neoadjuvant lung, nonresectable stage III lung (early but not as early as neoadjuvant and adjuvant), and adjuvant melanoma support an 85% probability of adding neoadjuvant and adjuvant lung cancer indications to the leading PD-1/PD-L1 drugs.</li>
<li>Data at ASCO 2019 strengthens the outlook for neoadjuvant/adjuvant treatment with a PD-1/PD-L1 drug, with Bristol's combination of Yervoy and Opdivo showing a stronger major pathological response rate (33%) than the historical trend seen with chemotherapy (27%) in the neoadjuvant setting.</li>
</ul>

The potential for Merck and Roche looks underappreciated.Innovation in immuno-oncology drugs has supported the moats for Merck &amp; Co Inc. (MRK US), Roche Holding Ltd (ROG VX), Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US), and AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN), and we expect expansion into the adjuvant/neoadjuvant settings to strengthen these moats. We project the lung adjuvant/neoadjuvant market to expand the potential by close to $10 billion in annual sales (not probability-weighted) by 2027, adding to almost $40 billion projected in the latestage metastatic settings. We estimate an 85% probability of success in this early-treatment setting based on early clinical data and the strength of the drugs in the late-stage setting. We view Merck and Roche as best positioned in the adjuvant setting due to a first-mover advantage with upcoming clinical data in 2020-21. While Bristol and Astra have earlier data in 2020 in the neoadjuvant setting, we are skeptical that these neoadjuvant studies without combination adjuvant chemotherapy will show strong enough efficacy to be competitive. Overall, including both early- and late-stage settings, we believe the potential of immuno-oncology drug sales is most underappreciated for Merck and Roche, and we see both of these companies as undervalued.Key Points
Merck's and Roche's potential in immuno-oncology looks underappreciated versus consensus expectations, and the addition of the adjuvant lung potential strengthens the firms' positioning.
We estimate the lung neoadjuvant/adjuvant market share for Merck (35%), Roche (35%), AstraZeneca (15%), and Bristol-Myers (15%) based on timing and design of clinical studies, early-stage study results, and data in the metastatic disease setting.
Successful studies in neoadjuvant lung, nonresectable stage III lung (early but not as early as neoadjuvant and adjuvant), and adjuvant melanoma support an 85% probability of adding neoadjuvant and adjuvant lung cancer indications to the leading PD-1/PD-L1 drugs.
Data at ASCO 2019 strengthens the outlook for neoadjuvant/adjuvant treatment with a PD-1/PD-L1 drug, with Bristol's combination of Yervoy and Opdivo showing a stronger major pathological response rate (33%) than the historical trend seen with chemotherapy (27%) in the neoadjuvant setting.


Immuno-Oncology Drugs in Adjuvant Lung: The Next Frontier in Strengthening Moats

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/728/original/2019-03-02_20-40-55.png?1551526871" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80728"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the strongest in over two years, and much of this 'boom' is flowing into risk assets. Large-scale repatriation of offshore funds by US companies has also helped boost the US dollar against the yen. The Market Composite responded by rising 2.3% over the last two weeks, although only by 1% in US dollar terms.WEAK MACRO - Net exports and higher inventories offset private investment and consumption during the fourth quarter, resulting in flat GDP growth year-on-year. January industrial production fell to the lowest level in 30 months, and, with the manufacturing PMI nearing 50, the prospect is for further weakness this quarter. Inventories continue to rise and, in North Asia, to levels last seen in 2005. Combined with the sharp fall in exports in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, export pricing in back in deflationary territory, putting further upward pressure on real interest rates.  Meanwhile, January retail sales saw the largest month-on-month decline in over three years as department stores saw fewer Chinese tourists over the New Year.  Equity markets are living on 'borrowed time'.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/722/original/2019-03-02_18-02-59.png?1551517390" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80722"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/724/original/2019-03-02_18-07-56.png?1551517689" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80724"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/729/original/2019-03-02_20-41-51.png?1551526925" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80729"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>HOLD FOR NOW - This bear market rally is two months old and is maturing. The Value Traded ratio is below trend again, the RSI is neutral, and the Toraku is signalling caution. We expect another month of liquidity/weak Yen-driven strength before the economic realities begin to prevail.MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10020:1">Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20269" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20269:1">Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8431" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8431:1">Parco (8251 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4489" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14674" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14674:1">Nichias (5393 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27043" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1">Raksul (4384 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10503" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10503:1">Daito Trust (1878 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14502" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>.


Source: Japan Analytics
LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the strongest in over two years, and much of this 'boom' is flowing into risk assets. Large-scale repatriation of offshore funds by US companies has also helped boost the US dollar against the yen. The Market Composite responded by rising 2.3% over the last two weeks, although only by 1% in US dollar terms.WEAK MACRO - Net exports and higher inventories offset private investment and consumption during the fourth quarter, resulting in flat GDP growth year-on-year. January industrial production fell to the lowest level in 30 months, and, with the manufacturing PMI nearing 50, the prospect is for further weakness this quarter. Inventories continue to rise and, in North Asia, to levels last seen in 2005. Combined with the sharp fall in exports in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, export pricing in back in deflationary territory, putting further upward pressure on real interest rates.  Meanwhile, January retail sales saw the largest month-on-month decline in over three years as department stores saw fewer Chinese tourists over the New Year.  Equity markets are living on 'borrowed time'.  Source: Japan AnalyticsHOLD FOR NOW - This bear market rally is two months old and is maturing. The Value Traded ratio is below trend again, the RSI is neutral, and the Toraku is signalling caution. We expect another month of liquidity/weak Yen-driven strength before the economic realities begin to prevail.MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP), Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP), Parco (8251 JP), Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP), Nichias (5393 JP), Raksul (4384 JP), Daito Trust (1878 JP), and Benefit One (2412 JP).   

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Liquidity Rules

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

The oncology treatment landscape in China is evolving rapidly as the government has prioritized access to innovative drugs to meet this significant unmet need. In particular, investors considering the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27888" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (1566213D HK)</a> listing should be aware of the emergence of a drug that potentially is superior to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27906" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27906:1">Roche Holding AG (ROG SW)</a>'s Herceptin (and Shanghai Henlius' HLX02) for the treatment of patients with HER2-positive breast cancer (and ultimately HER2-positive gastric cancer). While there should be good demand for cheaper alternatives to Herceptin, the availability of a superior alternative potentially shortens the lifecycle of Herceptin biosimilars. China has only recently "modernized" its drug approval and reimbursement, so there is little precedent to rely upon to estimate the speed and magnitude of changes in the market. As brokers rollout forecasts for the company and HLX02, investors should ask if the numbers somehow reflect this risk.We do not have a view of the offering, but tag this Insight as Bearish because we are highlighting a potential risk.

The oncology treatment landscape in China is evolving rapidly as the government has prioritized access to innovative drugs to meet this significant unmet need. In particular, investors considering the Shanghai Henlius Biotech (1566213D HK) listing should be aware of the emergence of a drug that potentially is superior to Roche Holding AG (ROG SW)'s Herceptin (and Shanghai Henlius' HLX02) for the treatment of patients with HER2-positive breast cancer (and ultimately HER2-positive gastric cancer). While there should be good demand for cheaper alternatives to Herceptin, the availability of a superior alternative potentially shortens the lifecycle of Herceptin biosimilars. China has only recently "modernized" its drug approval and reimbursement, so there is little precedent to rely upon to estimate the speed and magnitude of changes in the market. As brokers rollout forecasts for the company and HLX02, investors should ask if the numbers somehow reflect this risk.We do not have a view of the offering, but tag this Insight as Bearish because we are highlighting a potential risk.

United States

Roche Holding AG develops and manufactures pharmaceutical and diagnostic products. The Company produces prescription drugs in the areas of cardiovascular, infectious, autoimmune, respiratory diseases, dermatology, metabolic disorders, oncology, transplantation, and the central nervous system. Roche Holding serves customers worldwide.

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Roche Holding (RO SE)

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Shanghai Henlius Biotech IPO Initiation: Going Large

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (1566213D HK) is a biopharmaceutical company and a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)...

Arun George

Immuno-Oncology Drugs in Adjuvant Lung: The Next Frontier in Strengthening Moats

The potential for Merck and Roche looks underappreciated.Innovation in immuno-oncology drugs has supported the moats for Merck & Co Inc. (MRK...

Morningstar, Inc.

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Liquidity Rules

LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the...

Campbell Gunn

HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake

The oncology treatment landscape in China is evolving rapidly as the government has prioritized access to innovative drugs to meet this significant...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

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