High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade.</li><li>Cash and government bonds would perform strongly in that scenario. Many sectors would produce disappointing returns.</li><li>Real estate would likely be an exception. In fact, it could see a revival should interest rates fall faster than currently expected by most.</li></ul>

As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade.Cash and government bonds would perform strongly in that scenario. Many sectors would produce disappointing returns.Real estate would likely be an exception. In fact, it could see a revival should interest rates fall faster than currently expected by most.

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

United States

Rocket Companies, Inc. is a Michigan based holding company consisting of tech-driven real estate, mortgage and financial services businesses - including simple and fast digital solutions for complex personal transactions. Rocket Companies serves customers across the United States.

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Rocket Cos (RKT US)

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As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade. Cash and government bonds would...

Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

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