Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>However, KTX analysis suggests limited downside risk, as the market has already factored in a tepid economic outlook.</li><li>Moreover, there is a possibility that the Thai economy has reached its trough and could start recovering from 2Q to 4Q24, buoyed by the initiation of government budget spending, previously delayed for over six months.</li><li>Consequently, we anticipate that the SET Index might have already hit its bottom, though the magnitude of a potential rebound will hinge on the pace of the global economic recovery and the implementation of further government stimulus measures.</li></ul>

However, KTX analysis suggests limited downside risk, as the market has already factored in a tepid economic outlook.Moreover, there is a possibility that the Thai economy has reached its trough and could start recovering from 2Q to 4Q24, buoyed by the initiation of government budget spending, previously delayed for over six months.Consequently, we anticipate that the SET Index might have already hit its bottom, though the magnitude of a potential rebound will hinge on the pace of the global economic recovery and the implementation of further government stimulus measures.

Thai Economy Expected to Have Bottomed Out

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,400 points/1,404 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,387 points (10-day EMA)/1,380 points, based on the technical signals in the weekly chart indicating that it is still fluctuating within the range of 1,375-1,403 points while awaiting a breakout signal.</li><li>Keep a close watch for hints about the possible trajectory of the fed funds rate from the speeches by Fed Governor Lisa Cook (voter) and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who are expected to signal that the Fed will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates until inflation falls to the target.</li><li>We recommend stocks with positive news: BEM, CK, and JPARK.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,400 points/1,404 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,387 points (10-day EMA)/1,380 points, based on the technical signals in the weekly chart indicating that it is still fluctuating within the range of 1,375-1,403 points while awaiting a breakout signal.Keep a close watch for hints about the possible trajectory of the fed funds rate from the speeches by Fed Governor Lisa Cook (voter) and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who are expected to signal that the Fed will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates until inflation falls to the target.We recommend stocks with positive news: BEM, CK, and JPARK.

Keep a Close Watch on Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs in February for the US, EU and Japan

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Derivatives

<ul><li>Options markets sent conflicting signals this week.</li><li>Defensive put-buying surged across global financials, industrials, and high-momentum names.</li><li>At the same time, aggressive call-buying dominated ETF flows, cybersecurity, and select recovery plays.</li></ul>

Options markets sent conflicting signals this week.Defensive put-buying surged across global financials, industrials, and high-momentum names.At the same time, aggressive call-buying dominated ETF flows, cybersecurity, and select recovery plays.

Options Weekly: Bears Hedge, Bulls Chase: A Split Market in Options

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect the SET to move lower and test the 1,600-point level following a rebound in the 10- and 30-year US Treasury yields.</li>
<li>We recommend short-term trading in energy, petrochemical, and refinery stocks (PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP), supported by the rise in crude oil prices to USD94/bbl amid the possibility that the US may impose severe economic measures against Iran.</li>
<li>We recommend waiting for opportunities to accumulate defensive stocks (beta below 1) that still offer more than 5% upside, including GABLE, PR9, BDMS, NER, TU, and MRDIYT.</li>
</ul>


We expect the SET to move lower and test the 1,600-point level following a rebound in the 10- and 30-year US Treasury yields.
We recommend short-term trading in energy, petrochemical, and refinery stocks (PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP), supported by the rise in crude oil prices to USD94/bbl amid the possibility that the US may impose severe economic measures against Iran.
We recommend waiting for opportunities to accumulate defensive stocks (beta below 1) that still offer more than 5% upside, including GABLE, PR9, BDMS, NER, TU, and MRDIYT.


Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 21, 2026

United States

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a global cruise company operating a fleet of vessels in the cruise vacation industry. The Company operates through brands which primarily serve the contemporary, premium and deluxe segments of the cruise vacation industry, which also includes the budget and luxury segments.

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Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL US)

Thai Economy Expected to Have Bottomed Out

However, KTX analysis suggests limited downside risk, as the market has already factored in a tepid economic outlook. Moreover, there is a...

Krungthai XSpring

Keep a Close Watch on Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs in February for the US, EU and Japan

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,400 points/1,404 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,387...

Krungthai XSpring

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

Options Weekly: Bears Hedge, Bulls Chase: A Split Market in Options

Options markets sent conflicting signals this week. Defensive put-buying surged across global financials, industrials, and high-momentum names. At...

ORTEX Market Intel

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 21, 2026

We expect the SET to move lower and test the 1,600-point level following a rebound in the 10- and 30-year US Treasury yields. We recommend...

Krungthai XSpring

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