Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.</li>
<li>We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.</li>
<li>Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.
We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.
Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

<p>In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&amp;P 500 is headed next. We also highlight several attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.</p>

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&amp;P 500 is headed next. We also highlight several attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

U.S. Equities: Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

<p>We have noted several times throughout August that key support levels were being tested for global equities, and while there has yet to be a decisive breakdown, as time has passed there has been new negative developments which lead us to be even more cautious. This past Friday’s test of support is no different, and we believe the market is more vulnerable to a breakdown than it has been at any other point this year. In this report we highlight the new concerning developments which lead us to believe the market remains vulnerable to a breakdown. On a more positive note, we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within homebuilders, storage REITs, and large- and small-cap Western Hemisphere gold miners</p>

We have noted several times throughout August that key support levels were being tested for global equities, and while there has yet to be a decisive breakdown, as time has passed there has been new negative developments which lead us to be even more cautious. This past Friday’s test of support is no different, and we believe the market is more vulnerable to a breakdown than it has been at any other point this year. In this report we highlight the new concerning developments which lead us to believe the market remains vulnerable to a breakdown. On a more positive note, we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within homebuilders, storage REITs, and large- and small-cap Western Hemisphere gold miners

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Remains Warranted

United States

Royal Gold, Inc. acquires and manages precious metals royalties.  The Company seeks to acquire existing royalties or to finance projects that are in production or near production in exchange for royalty interests.  Royal Gold Inc.'s gold-focused portfolio contains royalties ranging from those in production and development to those in the evaluation and exploration stages.

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Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US)

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

Large-cap indexes are approaching critical support levels of 4257 on S&P 500, $334 on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on DJIA. These are our "lines in...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equities: Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&P 500 is headed...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Remains Warranted

We have noted several times throughout August that key support levels were being tested for global equities, and while there has yet to be a...

Vermilion Research

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