Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With nearly 80% of the review period complete, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.</li>
<li>There is a lot of stocks for passive trackers to trade on the index changes with the largest impacts on the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletions by a LOT over the last few months and continued positioning could lead to further gains.</li>
</ul>


With nearly 80% of the review period complete, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.
There is a lot of stocks for passive trackers to trade on the index changes with the largest impacts on the potential changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletions by a LOT over the last few months and continued positioning could lead to further gains.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to September

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Moelis Australia Ltd

MA Moelis Australia

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Moelis Australia Ltd

We are an ASX-listed financial services firm specialising in asset management, lending, corporate advisory and equities. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>Given this payment appears one-off in nature there is minimal impact to our valuation.</li><li>Across FY24e, we assume EBITDA growth of ~$8.7m is driven by (a) the aforementioned one-off payment (+$3m); (b) strong advisory demand (+$3m); and (c) drop-through of incremental software sales.</li><li>Buy rating maintained, $2.04 target price (prev: $2.03). Our thesis comprises: (a) operating inflection reached, with strong organic growth outlook supported by deep up/cross-sell opportunities; (b) flagship 'asset maintenance' solution considered industry-leading within its niche; (c) ~$35m net cash B/S with buyback in place.</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Given this payment appears one-off in nature there is minimal impact to our valuation.Across FY24e, we assume EBITDA growth of ~$8.7m is driven by (a) the aforementioned one-off payment (+$3m); (b) strong advisory demand (+$3m); and (c) drop-through of incremental software sales.Buy rating maintained, $2.04 target price (prev: $2.03). Our thesis comprises: (a) operating inflection reached, with strong organic growth outlook supported by deep up/cross-sell opportunities; (b) flagship 'asset maintenance' solution considered industry-leading within its niche; (c) ~$35m net cash B/S with buyback in place.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - FY24 Guidance Upgrade

<div><ul><li>FY24 revenue guidance upgraded by $2m to range of $107m to $112m (prior $105m-$110m) implying 11% YoY growth at midpoint, and EBITDA guidance (before management incentives) upgraded by $1m to range of $18.5m to $20.5m (prior $17.5m-$19.5m) implying 30% growth YoY.</li><li>Subscription and maintenance ARR ended 1Q24 at $56m (+$1m vs. Jun-23). 1Q24 new software TCV was $13.2m (1Q23: $5.2m).</li><li>RUL starts 2Q24 with $133m in pre- contracted &amp; non-cancellable software revenue.</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

FY24 revenue guidance upgraded by $2m to range of $107m to $112m (prior $105m-$110m) implying 11% YoY growth at midpoint, and EBITDA guidance (before management incentives) upgraded by $1m to range of $18.5m to $20.5m (prior $17.5m-$19.5m) implying 30% growth YoY.Subscription and maintenance ARR ended 1Q24 at $56m (+$1m vs. Jun-23). 1Q24 new software TCV was $13.2m (1Q23: $5.2m).RUL starts 2Q24 with $133m in pre- contracted &amp; non-cancellable software revenue.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Advisory-Led Upgrade to FY24 Guidance

<div><ul><li>FY23 operating EBITDA (pre one-off management incentives) of $15m was ahead of FY23 guidance of $13.8m.</li><li>However stronger than expected performance within advisory and software triggered the payment of ~$3m in one-off management incentives, taking overall FY23 EBITDA to $12m.</li><li>Subscription ARR ended Jun'23 at $42m (+$9m vs. Jun'22). Subscriptions sales included gross ARR growth of $11m with related TCV of $66m (FY22: $54m).</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

FY23 operating EBITDA (pre one-off management incentives) of $15m was ahead of FY23 guidance of $13.8m.However stronger than expected performance within advisory and software triggered the payment of ~$3m in one-off management incentives, taking overall FY23 EBITDA to $12m.Subscription ARR ended Jun'23 at $42m (+$9m vs. Jun'22). Subscriptions sales included gross ARR growth of $11m with related TCV of $66m (FY22: $54m).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Strong 2H ARR Sales Lay Foundation for FY24 Earnings Growth

<ul><li>1H EBITDA of $5.3m (Moelis est. $4.8m). FY23 EBITDA guidance for $14.2m re-affirmed, albeit with higher weighting towards subscription sales and lower contribution from consulting &amp; advisory (due to labour constraints).</li><li>Ending ARR of $36m (+37% pcp) with ~$25m TCV software sales made during 1H.</li><li>Advisory sales of $15m with backlog of $16m at Dec'22 (Jun'22: $16m).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

1H EBITDA of $5.3m (Moelis est. $4.8m). FY23 EBITDA guidance for $14.2m re-affirmed, albeit with higher weighting towards subscription sales and lower contribution from consulting &amp; advisory (due to labour constraints).Ending ARR of $36m (+37% pcp) with ~$25m TCV software sales made during 1H.Advisory sales of $15m with backlog of $16m at Dec'22 (Jun'22: $16m).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Guidance Re-Affirmed, Though Strong 2H Sales Growth & Cost Control Required

Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited is a technology company that provides integrated technology services (software), mining consulting and training the area of mining planning.

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RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to September

There could be 28 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes by a...

Brian Freitas

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - FY24 Guidance Upgrade

Across FY24e, we assume EBITDA growth of ~$8.7m is driven by (a) the aforementioned one-off payment (+$3m); (b) strong advisory demand (+$3m)

MA Moelis Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Advisory-Led Upgrade to FY24 Guidance

FY24 revenue guidance upgraded by $2m to range of $107m to $112m (prior $105m-$110m) implying 11% YoY growth at midpoint

MA Moelis Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Strong 2H ARR Sales Lay Foundation for FY24 Earnings Growth

FY23 operating EBITDA (pre one-off management incentives) of $15m was ahead of FY23 guidance of $13.8m. However stronger than expected performance...

MA Moelis Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Guidance Re-Affirmed, Though Strong 2H Sales Growth & Cost Control Required

FY23 EBITDA guidance for $14.2m re-affirmed, albeit with higher weighting towards subscription sales and lower contribution from consulting &...

MA Moelis Australia

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to September

There could be 28 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes by a...

Brian Freitas

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - FY24 Guidance Upgrade

Across FY24e, we assume EBITDA growth of ~$8.7m is driven by (a) the aforementioned one-off payment (+$3m); (b) strong advisory demand (+$3m)

MA Moelis Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Advisory-Led Upgrade to FY24 Guidance

FY24 revenue guidance upgraded by $2m to range of $107m to $112m (prior $105m-$110m) implying 11% YoY growth at midpoint

MA Moelis Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Strong 2H ARR Sales Lay Foundation for FY24 Earnings Growth

FY23 operating EBITDA (pre one-off management incentives) of $15m was ahead of FY23 guidance of $13.8m. However stronger than expected performance...

MA Moelis Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Guidance Re-Affirmed, Though Strong 2H Sales Growth & Cost Control Required

FY23 EBITDA guidance for $14.2m re-affirmed, albeit with higher weighting towards subscription sales and lower contribution from consulting &...

MA Moelis Australia

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to September