Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 07/Mar, US crude inventories increased by 1.4m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel build. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 62 Bcf for the week ending 07/Mar, lower than analyst expectations of a 46 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.9% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>SNB Capital and United Securities cut Aramco's price targets. TotalEnergies CEO expects LNG prices to decline by decade’s end.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 07/Mar, US crude inventories increased by 1.4m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel build. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 62 Bcf for the week ending 07/Mar, lower than analyst expectations of a 46 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.9% below the 5-year seasonal average.
SNB Capital and United Securities cut Aramco's price targets. TotalEnergies CEO expects LNG prices to decline by decade’s end.


[ETP 2025/11] Weak Demand and Trade Tensions Weigh on Crude, Volatile Weather Pressures Henry Hub

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 04/Oct, US crude inventories rose by 5.8m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2m barrel build. However, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 82 Bcf for the week ending 04/Oct, higher than analyst expectations of a 73 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron and Shell experienced target price upgrades, while Schlumberger and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, BNP Paribas downgraded Exxon to Underperform from Neutral.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 04/Oct, US crude inventories rose by 5.8m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2m barrel build. However, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 82 Bcf for the week ending 04/Oct, higher than analyst expectations of a 73 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron and Shell experienced target price upgrades, while Schlumberger and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, BNP Paribas downgraded Exxon to Underperform from Neutral.


[ETP 2024/41] WTI Rises Amid Supply Disruption Fears; Nat-Gas Demand Wanes Due to Hurricane Milton

Germany

RWE Aktiengesellschaft is a globally active energy company. The Company generates and trades electricity. RWE has a capacity of about 10 gigawatts based on renewable sources, as well as gas fleet and an internationally active energy trading business. RWE serves clients in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the United States.

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RWE (RWE GR)

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/11] Weak Demand and Trade Tensions Weigh on Crude, Volatile Weather Pressures Henry Hub

US crude inventories rise, missing expectations, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall. Aramco's price targets cut, TotalEnergies CEO...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/41] WTI Rises Amid Supply Disruption Fears; Nat-Gas Demand Wanes Due to Hurricane Milton

WTI prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand worries and larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories. US nat-gas inventories also...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/11] Weak Demand and Trade Tensions Weigh on Crude, Volatile Weather Pressures Henry Hub

​US crude inventories rise, missing expectations, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall. Aramco's price targets cut, TotalEnergies CEO...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/41] WTI Rises Amid Supply Disruption Fears; Nat-Gas Demand Wanes Due to Hurricane Milton

​WTI prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand worries and larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories. US nat-gas inventories also...

Mint Finance

US crude inventories rise, missing expectations, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall. Aramco's price targets cut, TotalEnergies CEO...

WTI prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand worries and larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories. US nat-gas inventories also...