New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported annuity earnings down -28% year on year, its lowest since the COVID-impacted 1H20.</li><li>NTA continued to grow strongly, in contrast to peer Ryman Healthcare, and contracted sales were up ~+30% year on year in July/August 2025; the future looks brighter.</li><li>SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by a factor of 3x.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported annuity earnings down -28% year on year, its lowest since the COVID-impacted 1H20.NTA continued to grow strongly, in contrast to peer Ryman Healthcare, and contracted sales were up ~+30% year on year in July/August 2025; the future looks brighter.SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by a factor of 3x.

Summerset Group 1H25 Waiting for the Golden Years to Arrive

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and manage inventory.</li><li>The New Zealand housing market remains a challenge for the aged care sector, but there are signs of stabilization with stable prices, declining mortgage rates, and increased turnover.</li><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is rated as the top pick in the aged care sector, with positive outlook based on its care ORA exposure.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and manage inventory.The New Zealand housing market remains a challenge for the aged care sector, but there are signs of stabilization with stable prices, declining mortgage rates, and increased turnover.Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is rated as the top pick in the aged care sector, with positive outlook based on its care ORA exposure.

Aged Care Sector Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

<ul><li>The aged care sector is showing signs of stability with unit and sales pricing holding steady despite Ryman Healthcare's selective price cuts.</li><li>Oceania Healthcare is rated OUTPERFORM due to its resilient demand focus and potential for debt reduction through inventory sell down.</li><li>The New Zealand housing market shows signs of recovery, with sales improving and a stable period for unit price buffers expected over the medium term.</li></ul>

The aged care sector is showing signs of stability with unit and sales pricing holding steady despite Ryman Healthcare's selective price cuts.Oceania Healthcare is rated OUTPERFORM due to its resilient demand focus and potential for debt reduction through inventory sell down.The New Zealand housing market shows signs of recovery, with sales improving and a stable period for unit price buffers expected over the medium term.

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a> in the S&amp;P/NZX 10 Index at the close of trading on 21 March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 0.8x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> and will need to sell 1.2x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a>. </li>
<li>Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a deletion from a global index at the close on 21 March and the selling from those passive trackers is far larger.</li>
</ul>



A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) will replace Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) in the S&amp;P/NZX 10 Index at the close of trading on 21 March.
Passive trackers will need to buy 0.8x ADV in A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) and will need to sell 1.2x ADV in Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ). 
Importantly, A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a deletion from a global index at the close on 21 March and the selling from those passive trackers is far larger.


S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> looks set to break the tea chain jinx in its listing today, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> will set its pricing.</li>
<li>On the placements front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> was back with a US$4bn+ deal in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Mixue Group (2097 HK) looks set to break the tea chain jinx in its listing today, while JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will set its pricing.
On the placements front, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) was back with a US$4bn+ deal in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP).


ECM Weekly (3rd Mar 2025) - Japan Post Bank, JX Advance, Mixue, Chifeng, JSW Cement, Premier, Guzman

New Zealand

Ryman Healthcare Limited provides private health care services through its development, management and operation of retirement villages, nursing homes and geriatric hospitals.  The Company's facilities are located in Christchurch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Wellington.

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Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

Summerset Group 1H25 Waiting for the Golden Years to Arrive

SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

The aged care sector is showing signs of stability with unit and sales pricing holding steady despite Ryman Healthcare's selective price cuts.

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

a2Milk replaces Ryman Healthcare in the NZX10 Index. Ryman has continued to slide following the NZ$1bn equity raise while a2 Milk is a deletion...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (3rd Mar 2025) - Japan Post Bank, JX Advance, Mixue, Chifeng, JSW Cement, Premier, Guzman

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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