Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

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<li>There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.</li>
<li>The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.</li>
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There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.

A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.


S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) used to dress up weak results to make them look good. In the last two results the opposite has been true.</li><li>Accounting noise aside, RYM delivered at or above our expectations across all our key focus areas.</li><li>Underlying cash flow from operations improved, operating expenses were flat versus 2H24 as cost out offset inflation and care bed growth.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) used to dress up weak results to make them look good. In the last two results the opposite has been true.Accounting noise aside, RYM delivered at or above our expectations across all our key focus areas.Underlying cash flow from operations improved, operating expenses were flat versus 2H24 as cost out offset inflation and care bed growth.

Ryman Healthcare - 1H25 Result — Structural Gain, Cyclical Pain

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) will report its 1H25 result on Thursday, 28 November.</li><li>After it lifted the veil on a decade of opaque accounting practices and half truths at its FY24 result, we expect its 1H25 result to be a continuation of the transition for RYM.</li><li>Multiple factors will likely impact the result: (1) battling a cyclically subdued housing turnover, (2) completing large legacy high-density developments, (3) moving to a new DMF structure, (4) initiating a sizeable cost out programme, and (5) changing its reporting to a completed/settled basis. </li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) will report its 1H25 result on Thursday, 28 November.After it lifted the veil on a decade of opaque accounting practices and half truths at its FY24 result, we expect its 1H25 result to be a continuation of the transition for RYM.Multiple factors will likely impact the result: (1) battling a cyclically subdued housing turnover, (2) completing large legacy high-density developments, (3) moving to a new DMF structure, (4) initiating a sizeable cost out programme, and (5) changing its reporting to a completed/settled basis. 

Ryman Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Let Go of Yesterday

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.</li>
<li>The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.</li>
<li>In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. </li>
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It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.
The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.
In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. 






<ul><li>On the face of it, little has changed in the aged care and NZ housing markets over the past six months.</li><li>House/unit prices are broadly flat and turnover remains a challenge.</li><li>But that hasn't stopped the aged care operators continuing to report record high sales numbers. </li></ul>

On the face of it, little has changed in the aged care and NZ housing markets over the past six months.House/unit prices are broadly flat and turnover remains a challenge.But that hasn't stopped the aged care operators continuing to report record high sales numbers. 

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

New Zealand

Ryman Healthcare Limited provides private health care services through its development, management and operation of retirement villages, nursing homes and geriatric hospitals.  The Company's facilities are located in Christchurch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Wellington.

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Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one change each for the NZX10 and NZX50 indices in March. Flows in the stocks are limited but impact is huge. A2Milk could have huge...

Brian Freitas

Ryman Healthcare - 1H25 Result — Structural Gain, Cyclical Pain

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) used to dress up weak results to make them look good. In the last two results the opposite has been true.

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Let Go of Yesterday

After it lifted the veil on a decade of opaque accounting practices and half truths at its FY24 result, we expect its 1H25 result to be a...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector

It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

vOn the face of it, little has changed in the aged care and NZ housing markets over the past six months. House/unit prices are broadly flat and...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)