Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Daiso is usually known for standing back and throwing mountains of plastic into cramped stores and selling it all for ¥100 per item. </li>
<li>Daiso has moved on in the past few years and now has new formats that not only sell at higher prices but offer a level of quality that surprises customers.</li>
<li>Its latest chain, Standard Products, targets Muji and Nitori in home categories for anything smaller than a desk and is representative of the growing sophistication and reach of discount retailing.</li>
</ul>


Daiso is usually known for standing back and throwing mountains of plastic into cramped stores and selling it all for ¥100 per item. 
Daiso has moved on in the past few years and now has new formats that not only sell at higher prices but offer a level of quality that surprises customers.
Its latest chain, Standard Products, targets Muji and Nitori in home categories for anything smaller than a desk and is representative of the growing sophistication and reach of discount retailing.


<ul>
<li>Although subscription consumption was already becoming popular before the pandemic, as familiarity with managing monthly payments for products and services have grown, sign up rates have surged since 2020. </li>
<li>The market reached just under ¥1 trillion in 2021, doubling in five years. Estimates suggest that B2C and B2B subscriptions combined will exceed ¥6 trillion in 2023.</li>
<li>As the sector grows more mainstream, more platforms are emerging to facilitate both set up and marketing, and more diverse subscriptions are launching to target specific niches.</li>
</ul>


Although subscription consumption was already becoming popular before the pandemic, as familiarity with managing monthly payments for products and services have grown, sign up rates have surged since 2020. 
The market reached just under ¥1 trillion in 2021, doubling in five years. Estimates suggest that B2C and B2B subscriptions combined will exceed ¥6 trillion in 2023.
As the sector grows more mainstream, more platforms are emerging to facilitate both set up and marketing, and more diverse subscriptions are launching to target specific niches.


Subscription Retailing Goes Mainstream in Japan

<ul>
<li>The latest figures show that Japanese incomes fell for the first time in five years in 2021. </li>
<li>But despite this, average monthly household expenditure recovered and then accelerated at the end of the year. Online spending grew significantly, and much of this was new growth</li>
<li>We detail below which retailers are likely to benefit from these shifts in consumption behaviour over the next few years.</li>
</ul>


The latest figures show that Japanese incomes fell for the first time in five years in 2021. 
But despite this, average monthly household expenditure recovered and then accelerated at the end of the year. Online spending grew significantly, and much of this was new growth
We detail below which retailers are likely to benefit from these shifts in consumption behaviour over the next few years.


Japanese Household Expenditure in 2021 and Beyond: Which Retailers Will Benefit?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With momentum behind defensive/semi defensive names in the Japanese market, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>’ seems to have one of the best risk reward ratios among Japanese retail players.</li>
<li>PPI’s undervaluation is visible in valuation multiples across the board with all multiples trading near the past 10-year low level.</li>
<li>Thus, we would buy PPI with a target of 40% upside in the short term.</li>
</ul>


With momentum behind defensive/semi defensive names in the Japanese market, Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’ seems to have one of the best risk reward ratios among Japanese retail players.
PPI’s undervaluation is visible in valuation multiples across the board with all multiples trading near the past 10-year low level.
Thus, we would buy PPI with a target of 40% upside in the short term.


Pan Pacific International Valuation: All Signs Points to a Large Upside in the Short Term

Private Capital Markets

Nitori Holdings / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Iconic retail chain, Tokyu Hands, is to be acquired by Cainz, Japan’s leading home centre retailer. </li>
<li>Tokyu Hands remains as popular as ever thanks to its unique merchandising, but it has struggled to be profitable for a long time.</li>
<li>Cainz should be able to fix this and Hands will be part of Cainz’s plans to become the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a> of home retailing – bringing competition to Nitori.</li>
</ul>


Iconic retail chain, Tokyu Hands, is to be acquired by Cainz, Japan’s leading home centre retailer. 
Tokyu Hands remains as popular as ever thanks to its unique merchandising, but it has struggled to be profitable for a long time.
Cainz should be able to fix this and Hands will be part of Cainz’s plans to become the Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP) of home retailing – bringing competition to Nitori.


Cainz Takes on Nitori with Tokyu Hands Takeover

Japan

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

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Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Daiso: Going After Muji and Nitori

Daiso Sangyo is known for cheap and cheerful 100 Yen stores but is fast expansing new higher priced chains which could well cause problems not only...

Michael Causton

Subscription Retailing Goes Mainstream in Japan

Subscription retailing is becoming a mainstream channel for many types of brand and retailer, not just digital services. The model helps shift...

Michael Causton

Japanese Household Expenditure in 2021 and Beyond: Which Retailers Will Benefit?

Japanese spent more on homes and less on clothes in the last two years but they also added to their savings. This insight analyses the key...

Michael Causton

Pan Pacific International Valuation: All Signs Points to a Large Upside in the Short Term

With momentum shifting positive, we think PPI has the largest upside potential among the Japanese semi defensive names with a possible 40% upside...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Cainz Takes on Nitori with Tokyu Hands Takeover

Nitori and Muji have pretty much had the interiors market to themselves until now thanks to IKEA's slow rollout but new competition is coming from...

Michael Causton

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