Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With ISM manufacturing new orders below 50 for 8 months, the US will join the Eurozone in recession this quarter. PCE buoyed Q1 GDP, but will weaken as unemployment rises. </li>
<li>Core PCE inflation at 4.6%YoY (MoM annualised gains of 4.7% in Q1CY23) will oblige the Fed to hike the FF rate another 50bp. Mar'23's 4%YoY contraction in M2 proved insufficient. </li>
<li>ECB and BoE need to hike much more, given that CPI inflation is at 6.9%YoY and 10.1%YoY respectively vs their 2% target. Advanced Economies to grow just 0.5% in 2023. </li>
</ul>


With ISM manufacturing new orders below 50 for 8 months, the US will join the Eurozone in recession this quarter. PCE buoyed Q1 GDP, but will weaken as unemployment rises. 
Core PCE inflation at 4.6%YoY (MoM annualised gains of 4.7% in Q1CY23) will oblige the Fed to hike the FF rate another 50bp. Mar'23's 4%YoY contraction in M2 proved insufficient. 
ECB and BoE need to hike much more, given that CPI inflation is at 6.9%YoY and 10.1%YoY respectively vs their 2% target. Advanced Economies to grow just 0.5% in 2023. 


With Inflation Untamed, More Fed and ECB Rate Hikes Ahead Despite Recession

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report the World Bank said last week that global commodity prices are expected to decline this year at the fastest pace</li><li>The agency expects prices to fall 21% compared to last year during 2023.</li><li>For 2024 the World Bank expects prices to remain stable. </li></ul>

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report the World Bank said last week that global commodity prices are expected to decline this year at the fastest paceThe agency expects prices to fall 21% compared to last year during 2023.For 2024 the World Bank expects prices to remain stable. 

Recession fears scare commodities again & World Banks forecasts major drop

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Cycle: May/June a more negative cycle. Late April negative/ turn phase is unfolding with a squeeze surprise (2-3 session swing turns).  Sell SPX 4,200 top zone. 4,100 break will open up selling pressure. </li>
<li>RTY bear reversal at 1,790 resistance on track and the underperform favored US short.</li>
<li>Euro wedge break would pick up slack as the USD/JPY rise stalls at resistance. Asian equity short, long updated levels.</li>
</ul>


Cycle: May/June a more negative cycle. Late April negative/ turn phase is unfolding with a squeeze surprise (2-3 session swing turns).  Sell SPX 4,200 top zone. 4,100 break will open up selling pressure. 
RTY bear reversal at 1,790 resistance on track and the underperform favored US short.
Euro wedge break would pick up slack as the USD/JPY rise stalls at resistance. Asian equity short, long updated levels.


SPX and RTY to Reverse, Euro Wedge and Asia Short/Long Update

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Year-On-Year, M2 broad money supply has dropped by 4.1%. The 6-month annualized rate of decline is a whopping 6.5%. </li>
<li>As a result, Excess Liquidity (Money Supply Growth - Nominal GDP growth) has turned very negative, revealing money is being drawn from equities at a historically rapid pace.</li>
<li>Given the historical relationship between Excess Liquidity and Valuation, the forward P/E ratio of US Equities must drop to 16 from 19 for the two variables to align.</li>
</ul>


Year-On-Year, M2 broad money supply has dropped by 4.1%. The 6-month annualized rate of decline is a whopping 6.5%. 
As a result, Excess Liquidity (Money Supply Growth - Nominal GDP growth) has turned very negative, revealing money is being drawn from equities at a historically rapid pace.
Given the historical relationship between Excess Liquidity and Valuation, the forward P/E ratio of US Equities must drop to 16 from 19 for the two variables to align.


Money Supply-Driven Excess Liquidity Unveils 20% S&P 500 Downside Blog

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

With Inflation Untamed, More Fed and ECB Rate Hikes Ahead Despite Recession

US M2 contracted 4%YoY in Mar'23 but core PCE inflation was still 4.6%YoY, requiring another 50bp of rate hikes plus recession. PCE to lose...

Prasenjit K. Basu

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...