Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Asian Dollar Index is down (US Dollar up) 1.7% from 1st -13th February.</li><li>After the initial excitement of China reopening accelerating after the LNY holidays, the CNY weakened by 1.7%, and Yen weakened by nearly 3% during the same period in February.</li><li>The Bloomberg Dollar index is up 1.78%, and the DXY index is up 2.57%.</li></ul>

The Asian Dollar Index is down (US Dollar up) 1.7% from 1st -13th February.After the initial excitement of China reopening accelerating after the LNY holidays, the CNY weakened by 1.7%, and Yen weakened by nearly 3% during the same period in February.The Bloomberg Dollar index is up 1.78%, and the DXY index is up 2.57%.

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>January CPI is due on Tuesday 14th and the market is expecting the biggest rise since October</li>
<li>The SPX has rallied over 7% since December but the Yield Curve has been moving higher and the equity rhetoric is turning negative</li>
<li>We look at a short-term trading opportunity in the options market to play the print</li>
</ul>


January CPI is due on Tuesday 14th and the market is expecting the biggest rise since October
The SPX has rallied over 7% since December but the Yield Curve has been moving higher and the equity rhetoric is turning negative
We look at a short-term trading opportunity in the options market to play the print


EQD | SPX Index : CPI Data Is Set to Raise Inflation Fears Again.Use Daily Options to Play the Event

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>M2 contracted 1.3%YoY in Dec'22, its first YoY contraction in 80+ years. Since core PCE inflation was still 4.4%YoY that month, more monetary contraction is needed.  </li>
<li>The 10yr-2yr yield spread is -0.76pp (10th Feb'23), while ISM manufacturing new orders have slipped to 42.5, both unequivocally signaling that recession will likely begin next quarter (Q2 2023). </li>
<li>US real GDP decelerated for 4 consecutive quarters (to +1%YoY in 4Q2022), but the labour market appears tight merely because the participation rate is 4pp lower than 2008.</li>
</ul>


M2 contracted 1.3%YoY in Dec'22, its first YoY contraction in 80+ years. Since core PCE inflation was still 4.4%YoY that month, more monetary contraction is needed.  
The 10yr-2yr yield spread is -0.76pp (10th Feb'23), while ISM manufacturing new orders have slipped to 42.5, both unequivocally signaling that recession will likely begin next quarter (Q2 2023). 
US real GDP decelerated for 4 consecutive quarters (to +1%YoY in 4Q2022), but the labour market appears tight merely because the participation rate is 4pp lower than 2008.


US: Recession Imminent, as M2 Needs to Contract Further to Squeeze Out Inflation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Liquidity trends are RAPIDLY on the rise in China and Japan in contrast to the West</li>
<li>Global liquidity probably bottomed in November unless BoJ turns around soon</li>
<li>The PBoC is currently helping global equities perform via new liquidity/credit</li>
</ul>


Liquidity trends are RAPIDLY on the rise in China and Japan in contrast to the West
Global liquidity probably bottomed in November unless BoJ turns around soon
The PBoC is currently helping global equities perform via new liquidity/credit


Macro Strategy– Has Global Liquidity (And the Equity Market) Bottomed Already?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.</li>
<li>We are treating the DXY 101 low as a key USD turn support that will see dollar upside follow through on the back of a bullish 10 yr yield breakout.</li>
<li>Equity weakness due from mid- Feb into Q2. NDX is hovering near pivotal lows (tech/growth U/P). Scales are tipped toward new lows.</li>
</ul>


The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.
We are treating the DXY 101 low as a key USD turn support that will see dollar upside follow through on the back of a bullish 10 yr yield breakout.
Equity weakness due from mid- Feb into Q2. NDX is hovering near pivotal lows (tech/growth U/P). Scales are tipped toward new lows.


United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

The Butterfly Effect

After the initial excitement of China reopening accelerating after the LNY holidays, the CNY weakened by 1.7%, and Yen weakened by nearly 3% during...

Untying The Gordian Knot

EQD | SPX Index : CPI Data Is Set to Raise Inflation Fears Again.Use Daily Options to Play the Event

US CPI data is out on Tues 14th. We look at the market expectations and the current positioning in Equities. We consider the potential for a move...

Simon Harris

US: Recession Imminent, as M2 Needs to Contract Further to Squeeze Out Inflation

Despite the 1st YoY M2 contraction YoY in 80+ years, core PCE inflation is double the Fed target. More M2 contraction will drag the US to recession...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Macro Strategy– Has Global Liquidity (And the Equity Market) Bottomed Already?

JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Global liquidity bottomed in November, which ought to be...

Steno Research

SPX 4,200 Risk off Drivers

The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.

Thomas Schroeder