Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

<ul>
<li>The VIX Index has turned up after declining by the same magnitudes as the previous two occasions</li>
<li>This warns of another leg up over the coming days and weeks</li>
<li>As a consequence it is a sign of renewed weakness on the S&amp;P 500</li>
</ul>


The VIX Index has turned up after declining by the same magnitudes as the previous two occasions
This warns of another leg up over the coming days and weeks
As a consequence it is a sign of renewed weakness on the S&amp;P 500


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.</li>
<li>As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.
As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.
We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR in reverse : the flow of credit reaching the private sector continues to materially slow down , as indicated by my G5 Credit Impulse metric.</li><li>On top of it, inflation is roaring its ugly head and Central Bankers are committed to turning monetary policy into explicitly restrictive territory as fast as possible.</li><li>When the flow of credit slows down and policymakers double down by pushing monetary policy into restrictive territory, you don’t play offense with your portfolio. You play defense</li></ul>

The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR in reverse : the flow of credit reaching the private sector continues to materially slow down , as indicated by my G5 Credit Impulse metric.On top of it, inflation is roaring its ugly head and Central Bankers are committed to turning monetary policy into explicitly restrictive territory as fast as possible.When the flow of credit slows down and policymakers double down by pushing monetary policy into restrictive territory, you don’t play offense with your portfolio. You play defense

Has Your Portfolio Realized That The Money Printer is Out of Order?

<ul>
<li>As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.</li>
<li>We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.
We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.
4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>US breadth remains a challenge as we move into a more bearish April cycle. SPX risk to reward is less favorable above 4,500 (March ideal rally target).</li>
<li>Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of early April weakness/volatility.</li>
<li>RTY a top short under 2,100 and DJI to build a short toward 35k. Underperform makes a good case to short. NDX 15,100 ideal sell zone.</li>
</ul>


US breadth remains a challenge as we move into a more bearish April cycle. SPX risk to reward is less favorable above 4,500 (March ideal rally target).
Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of early April weakness/volatility.
RTY a top short under 2,100 and DJI to build a short toward 35k. Underperform makes a good case to short. NDX 15,100 ideal sell zone.


United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

VIX Index Shows Trouble Ahead

The VIX Index is showing signs of moving up again which in turn indicate a decline on the S&P 500 over the coming days and weeks

Shyam Devani

Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

Several indexes remain below key resistance, including 4600 on $SPX, $110 on $QQEW, $209 on $IWM, $111 on $IJR, $507 on the $SOX index $SOXX, $73...

Vermilion Research

Has Your Portfolio Realized That The Money Printer is Out of Order?

‘‘There are no gurus. There are only cycles.’’ Michael Gayed The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

$209 on the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now, and we would like the see a break above $209 in...

Vermilion Research

US Equity Risk/Reward Turning Negative

US breadth remains a challenge as we move into a more bearish April cycle. SPX risk to reward is less favorable above 4,500 (March ideal rally...

Thomas Schroeder