Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have hit decent supports</li>
<li>This has come after the rise in yields has started to slow down</li>
<li>At this stage it appears at least a short term bounce may be seen. It is too soon to determine anything more than that</li>
</ul>


Both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have hit decent supports
This has come after the rise in yields has started to slow down
At this stage it appears at least a short term bounce may be seen. It is too soon to determine anything more than that


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.</li>
<li>Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.</li>
<li>Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.
Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.
Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.


U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs</li>
<li>These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money</li>
<li>The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago</li>
</ul>


The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs
These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money
The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago


Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The power of the rate of change of things is very important here. Look at money creation for example. The extreme volatility in credit creation is a result of Covid-policies</li><li>we may be in for a 2019-like contraction in USD reserves in the financial system already before year-end.</li><li>I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now.. And equities overall..</li></ul>

The power of the rate of change of things is very important here. Look at money creation for example. The extreme volatility in credit creation is a result of Covid-policieswe may be in for a 2019-like contraction in USD reserves in the financial system already before year-end.I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now.. And equities overall..

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation (7%YoY) is at its highest since the Volcker era (June 1982), core CPI inflation (5.5%YoY) its highest since February 1991, driven by 12-14%YoY growth in M2 during 2H21.</li>
<li>The 'disappointing' NFP still brought the unemployment rate down to 3.9% in December 2021, well below the NAIRU, resulting in a 4.7%YoY rise average hourly earnings (wages).  </li>
<li>We expect at least 4 hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year, taking it to 1.25% by end-year, with QE4 likely abandoned at the Jan25-26 FOMC meeting. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation (7%YoY) is at its highest since the Volcker era (June 1982), core CPI inflation (5.5%YoY) its highest since February 1991, driven by 12-14%YoY growth in M2 during 2H21.
The 'disappointing' NFP still brought the unemployment rate down to 3.9% in December 2021, well below the NAIRU, resulting in a 4.7%YoY rise average hourly earnings (wages).  
We expect at least 4 hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year, taking it to 1.25% by end-year, with QE4 likely abandoned at the Jan25-26 FOMC meeting. 


US: Tight Labour Market and Still-Abundant M2 Make for an Inflationary Cocktail

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US Equities: A Small Squeeze?

Having hit decent supports, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Indices look like they will bounce. At this juncture the indications should be taken as...

Shyam Devani

U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

The market continues to send mixed signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials,...

Vermilion Research

US Equities with Rising Yields and Oil

The rise in yields and Oil seem to be having a negative impact on equities...again. This was also seen a few months ago which is being compared to...

Shyam Devani

Vikings At The Gate

The power of the rate of change of things is very important here. Look at money creation for example. The extreme volatility in credit creation is...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

US: Tight Labour Market and Still-Abundant M2 Make for an Inflationary Cocktail

M2 continued growing 12-14%YoY in Jul-Nov2021 (after 24%YoY growth in Jul-Nov2020). With unemployment down to 3.9%, inflation has surged. We expect...

Prasenjit K. Basu