Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Kospi rallied strongly this week, reaching 8-month highs and showing strong relative strength as other indices stalled out.</li>
<li>Volatility firmed up across the board amid sharp price action and strong demand for Calls.</li>
<li>Volatility dynamics this week differed notably from recent directional moves.</li>
</ul>


Kospi rallied strongly this week, reaching 8-month highs and showing strong relative strength as other indices stalled out.
Volatility firmed up across the board amid sharp price action and strong demand for Calls.
Volatility dynamics this week differed notably from recent directional moves.


Kospi Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Index Surges as Call Demand Drives Vol Higher

<ul>
<li>Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.</li>
<li>Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels. </li>
<li>Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks. </li>
</ul>


Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.
Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels. 
Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks. 


Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The FOMC claimed at its last meeting that 'inflation remains elevated', although core PCE and core CPI inflation were BOTH at 4-year lows in Apr'25, despite the Trump tariffs. </li>
<li>FOMC minutes show members expressing fears about the prospect of both high inflation and high unemployment, NEITHER of which has yet actually transpired. Politics is clouding the Fed's policymaking ability. </li>
<li>Apr'25 was the first month with the tariffs, yet inflation FELL. M2 growth is just 4.25%YoY (Apr'25), so inflation is likely to stay tame. A Jun'25 rate cut is due. </li>
</ul>


The FOMC claimed at its last meeting that 'inflation remains elevated', although core PCE and core CPI inflation were BOTH at 4-year lows in Apr'25, despite the Trump tariffs. 
FOMC minutes show members expressing fears about the prospect of both high inflation and high unemployment, NEITHER of which has yet actually transpired. Politics is clouding the Fed's policymaking ability. 
Apr'25 was the first month with the tariffs, yet inflation FELL. M2 growth is just 4.25%YoY (Apr'25), so inflation is likely to stay tame. A Jun'25 rate cut is due. 


US: Politics Is Clouding the Ability to Make Rational Monetary Policy

<ul>
<li>HSI traded sideways for a third straight week as macro headlines swirled and tariffs turned internally litigious.</li>
<li>Volatility drifted lower, with 1M implied vol dropping below its 1-year median for the first time in months.</li>
<li>Call volumes were significantly higher led by one strike in particular.</li>
</ul>


HSI traded sideways for a third straight week as macro headlines swirled and tariffs turned internally litigious.
Volatility drifted lower, with 1M implied vol dropping below its 1-year median for the first time in months.
Call volumes were significantly higher led by one strike in particular.


HSI Index Options Weekly (May 26-30): Choppy Tape, One Strike Rules Them All

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Kospi Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Index Surges as Call Demand Drives Vol Higher

Kospi hits 8-month high, shows relative strength vs other indices. Volatility increases with strong demand for Calls and is becoming more...

John Ley

Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

Nifty's rally stalls, volatility remains high, we recommend reducing exposure while also taking advantage of elevtaed volatility.

John Ley

US: Politics Is Clouding the Ability to Make Rational Monetary Policy

FOMC worries about high inflation AND unemployment. But core inflation was at 4-year low in Apr'25. Politics clouding Fed's policymaking. Tariffs...

Prasenjit K. Basu

HSI Index Options Weekly (May 26-30): Choppy Tape, One Strike Rules Them All

HSI traded sideways amid macro headlines and internal tariff disputes, while volatility decreased and call volumes surged, driven by one specific...

John Ley

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

Kospi Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Index Surges as Call Demand Drives Vol Higher

​Kospi hits 8-month high, shows relative strength vs other indices. Volatility increases with strong demand for Calls and is becoming more...

John Ley

Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

​Nifty's rally stalls, volatility remains high, we recommend reducing exposure while also taking advantage of elevtaed volatility.

John Ley

US: Politics Is Clouding the Ability to Make Rational Monetary Policy

​FOMC worries about high inflation AND unemployment. But core inflation was at 4-year low in Apr'25. Politics clouding Fed's policymaking. Tariffs...

Prasenjit K. Basu

HSI Index Options Weekly (May 26-30): Choppy Tape, One Strike Rules Them All

​HSI traded sideways amid macro headlines and internal tariff disputes, while volatility decreased and call volumes surged, driven by one specific...

John Ley

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

Kospi hits 8-month high, shows relative strength vs other indices. Volatility increases with strong demand for Calls and is becoming more...

Nifty's rally stalls, volatility remains high, we recommend reducing exposure while also taking advantage of elevtaed volatility.

FOMC worries about high inflation AND unemployment. But core inflation was at 4-year low in Apr'25. Politics clouding Fed's policymaking. Tariffs...

HSI traded sideways amid macro headlines and internal tariff disputes, while volatility decreased and call volumes surged, driven by one specific...