Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?</li>
<li>The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Is the OpenAI NVIDIA Artificial Intelligence driven bull market over?
The Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets are most at risk


Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The famous Gilray cartoon of Pitt and Napoleon carving up the world has ironic resonance as Russia and the US meet up in Saudi Arabia this week with UK, Europe and Ukraine are not even invited.</li><li>To be fair, this is more about re-establishing US/Russia relations before any progress can be made on Ukraine, but the, now perpetually outraged, EU politicians, still smarting from their telling off by JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference last week, should perhaps be reflecting on the notion that the US may be taking a more Palmerston-like view to alliances…</li><li>Therefore I say that it is a narrow policy to suppose that this country or that is to be marked out as the eternal ally or the perpetual enemy of England.</li></ul>

The famous Gilray cartoon of Pitt and Napoleon carving up the world has ironic resonance as Russia and the US meet up in Saudi Arabia this week with UK, Europe and Ukraine are not even invited.To be fair, this is more about re-establishing US/Russia relations before any progress can be made on Ukraine, but the, now perpetually outraged, EU politicians, still smarting from their telling off by JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference last week, should perhaps be reflecting on the notion that the US may be taking a more Palmerston-like view to alliances…Therefore I say that it is a narrow policy to suppose that this country or that is to be marked out as the eternal ally or the perpetual enemy of England.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Super Micro Computer / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.</li>
<li>Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. </li>
<li>The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.
Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. 
The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

<ul>
<li>Gold continues to make new highs to little, if any fanfare</li>
<li>Traditional drivers of gold like lower real rates and a weaker dollar yet to come into play</li>
<li>What does this mean for the precious metals mining sector and is it time to buy?</li>
</ul>


Gold continues to make new highs to little, if any fanfare
Traditional drivers of gold like lower real rates and a weaker dollar yet to come into play
What does this mean for the precious metals mining sector and is it time to buy?


What’s the Best-Performing Major Asset Class This Year? Hint-Its Yellow and Shiny!

Adtalem Global Education  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.</li>
<li>We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."</li>
<li>Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.</li>
</ul>


As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.
We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."
Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.


S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

Eternal and Perpetual

The famous Gilray cartoon of Pitt and Napoleon carving up the world has ironic resonance as Russia and the US meet up in Saudi Arabia this week...

Mark Tinker

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; Dip Buys Bearing Fruit; $DXY and 10-year Treasury Yield Forming Major Tops?;...

Vermilion Research

What’s the Best-Performing Major Asset Class This Year? Hint-Its Yellow and Shiny!

Gold is reaching new highs without much attention, traditional drivers like low real rates and a weak dollar have not impacted yet. What does this...

Rikki Malik

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Overview #17 – Buckle Up, We’re Not in Kansas Anymore!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We examine some implications of a peaking in the AI narrative-driven...

Rikki Malik

Eternal and Perpetual

The famous Gilray cartoon of Pitt and Napoleon carving up the world has ironic resonance as Russia and the US meet up in Saudi Arabia this week...

Mark Tinker

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; Dip Buys Bearing Fruit; $DXY and 10-year Treasury Yield Forming Major Tops?;...

Vermilion Research

What’s the Best-Performing Major Asset Class This Year? Hint-Its Yellow and Shiny!

​Gold is reaching new highs without much attention, traditional drivers like low real rates and a weak dollar have not impacted yet. What does this...

Rikki Malik

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Gold is reaching new highs without much attention, traditional drivers like low real rates and a weak dollar have not impacted yet. What does this...