Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

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As recently emphasised (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-dammit-janet-i-love-you" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14994">Chart of the Day: Dammit, Janet! I Love You</a>), Fed Chair Yellen somewhat prematurely ends her tenure in charge of the central bank with the US economy enjoying the kind of golden conjuncture that is typically seen only every 20-25 years. In fact, on the basis of the 'misery index' , the US economy has not been this cheerful for since the 1960s!
Yellen's achievement is all the more remarkable (and criticism of her all the more churlish!) when one considers how little help…
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As recently emphasised (Chart of the Day: Dammit, Janet! I Love You), Fed Chair Yellen somewhat prematurely ends her tenure in charge of the central bank with the US economy enjoying the kind of golden conjuncture that is typically seen only every 20-25 years. In fact, on the basis of the 'misery index' , the US economy has not been this cheerful for since the 1960s!
Yellen's achievement is all the more remarkable (and criticism of her all the more churlish!) when one considers how little help…


Chart of the Day: Dammit Janet! I Love You - Part 2

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

-Appointing a non-economist as Fed chair is akin to appointing an economist (without legal training) as Chief Justice. The last time it happened, the US went into Stagflation. The flattening yield curve this time is already signalling recession risks for 2018; the appointment of Taylor and Warsh to two of the four emerging governor vacancies at the Fed will shift policy inexorably in a hawkish direction, and tip the US into recession by the end of 2018. -With the Democrats winning the…

-Appointing a non-economist as Fed chair is akin to appointing an economist (without legal training) as Chief Justice. The last time it happened, the US went into Stagflation. The flattening yield curve this time is already signalling recession risks for 2018; the appointment of Taylor and Warsh to two of the four emerging governor vacancies at the Fed will shift policy inexorably in a hawkish direction, and tip the US into recession by the end of 2018. -With the Democrats winning the…

Trump Now Has a Clear Path to Damage the Fed, Even as He Loses Political Ground

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

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The US economy is booming; enjoying an extraordinary, non-inflationary surge despite the relative maturity of the current recovery. After back-to-back quarters of 3% annualised growth, the economy looks to have accelerated further with growth momentum closer to 4%! 
A composite ISM index (weighted 80% services, 20% manufacturing) is comfortably the best short-run guide to growth momentum with a correlation of 79% vs. 6-month annualised GDP growth. At 60 in both September and October, the…
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The US economy is booming; enjoying an extraordinary, non-inflationary surge despite the relative maturity of the current recovery. After back-to-back quarters of 3% annualised growth, the economy looks to have accelerated further with growth momentum closer to 4%! 
A composite ISM index (weighted 80% services, 20% manufacturing) is comfortably the best short-run guide to growth momentum with a correlation of 79% vs. 6-month annualised GDP growth. At 60 in both September and October, the…


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At 101 months and counting, the US's current expansion is now the second longest since WWII and closing in on <a href="http://www.nber.org/cycles.html" target="_blank">the 120 month record set between March 1991 and March 2001</a>. But as any middle-aged economist worth his salt will tell you. age is just a number!
Recessions are caused by sharp swings in cash-flows/spending triggered by external shocks, policy mistakes and shifts in future income expectations. Critically, just three components of domestic demand - residential investment, household spending…
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At 101 months and counting, the US's current expansion is now the second longest since WWII and closing in on the 120 month record set between March 1991 and March 2001. But as any middle-aged economist worth his salt will tell you. age is just a number!
Recessions are caused by sharp swings in cash-flows/spending triggered by external shocks, policy mistakes and shifts in future income expectations. Critically, just three components of domestic demand - residential investment, household spending…


United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Chart of the Day: Dammit Janet! I Love You - Part 2

As recently emphasised (Chart of the Day: Dammit, Janet! I Love You), Fed Chair Yellen somewhat prematurely ends her tenure in charge of the...

Richard Iley

Trump Now Has a Clear Path to Damage the Fed, Even as He Loses Political Ground

-Appointing a non-economist as Fed chair is akin to appointing an economist (without legal training) as Chief Justice. The last time it happened,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to...

Vermilion Research

Chart of the Day: BOOM!

The US economy is booming; enjoying an extraordinary, non-inflationary surge despite the relative maturity of the current recovery. After...

Richard Iley

Chart of the Day: Age Is Just A Number

At 101 months and counting, the US's current expansion is now the second longest since WWII and closing in on the 120 month record set between...

Richard Iley