Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Central banks in the US, Europe, and Asia have made policy rate announcements, with the Fed in the US easing rates and the ECB expected to continue cutting rates.</li><li>The US economy is expected to see slowing growth momentum in the coming year, with concerns about policy risks from the incoming Trump administration.</li><li>In Asia, Japan is forecasted to experience above potential growth with rate hikes, while China continues to struggle with low inflation and credit growth.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Central banks in the US, Europe, and Asia have made policy rate announcements, with the Fed in the US easing rates and the ECB expected to continue cutting rates.The US economy is expected to see slowing growth momentum in the coming year, with concerns about policy risks from the incoming Trump administration.In Asia, Japan is forecasted to experience above potential growth with rate hikes, while China continues to struggle with low inflation and credit growth.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.</li>
<li>The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.</li>
<li>Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024</li>
</ul>


The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.
The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.
Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024


Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.</li><li>These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.</li><li>While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.</li></ul>

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The FOMC cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bp as expected, but its median projection showed just 50bp of rate cuts in 2025 (down from 100bp projected in Sep'24). </li>
<li>M2 has steadily accelerated since Mar'24, rising 3.3%YoY in Oct'24. Unsurprisingly, core PCE and core CPI inflation have moved higher from their Jul'24 trough to 3.32%YoY(Nov'24) and 2.8%YoY(Oct'24) respectively. </li>
<li>No rate cuts likely in Q1CY25, as fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in Oct'23-Sep'24) keeps boosting RGDP growth and inflation. DOGE spending cuts &amp; declining Brent key to Jun'25 cut.</li>
</ul>


The FOMC cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bp as expected, but its median projection showed just 50bp of rate cuts in 2025 (down from 100bp projected in Sep'24). 
M2 has steadily accelerated since Mar'24, rising 3.3%YoY in Oct'24. Unsurprisingly, core PCE and core CPI inflation have moved higher from their Jul'24 trough to 3.32%YoY(Nov'24) and 2.8%YoY(Oct'24) respectively. 
No rate cuts likely in Q1CY25, as fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in Oct'23-Sep'24) keeps boosting RGDP growth and inflation. DOGE spending cuts &amp; declining Brent key to Jun'25 cut.


US: FOMC's Hawkish Outlook Is Optimistic Without a Fiscal Complement

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Narrow leadership in the S&amp;P500 has evoked memories of the conditions that prevailed in the late-1990s. US history is littered with periods of even greater concentration of equity market leadership.</li>
<li>Narrow leadership of the S&amp;P500 reflects the shift in the distribution of corporate profits in favour of larger companies as important sectors within the US economy have become more concentrated. </li>
<li>Current valuations of the top 10 S&amp;P500 stocks are lower than the 2000 peak. Exuberant profit expectations present the biggest threat to US equities as opposed to narrow leadership.</li>
</ul>


Narrow leadership in the S&amp;P500 has evoked memories of the conditions that prevailed in the late-1990s. US history is littered with periods of even greater concentration of equity market leadership.
Narrow leadership of the S&amp;P500 reflects the shift in the distribution of corporate profits in favour of larger companies as important sectors within the US economy have become more concentrated. 
Current valuations of the top 10 S&amp;P500 stocks are lower than the 2000 peak. Exuberant profit expectations present the biggest threat to US equities as opposed to narrow leadership.


US Equity Outlook: Leadership Concentration Has Been Higher and Valuations Still Matter

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

The Week Ahead – Happy New Year?

Central banks globally are lowering policy rates, US expected to see exceptional growth in 2024, downside risks from Trump administration policies,...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These...

Steno Research

US: FOMC's Hawkish Outlook Is Optimistic Without a Fiscal Complement

We expect no rate cuts in Q1CY25, as M2 growth (3.3%YoY Oct'24) and fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in year to Sep'24) are boosting growth. A Jun'25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Equity Outlook: Leadership Concentration Has Been Higher and Valuations Still Matter

S&P500 leadership is very concentrated, but previous peaks have been higher compared to present levels and the dot-com boom. Unrealistic earnings...

DeSaque Macro Research

The Week Ahead – Happy New Year?

Central banks globally are lowering policy rates, US expected to see exceptional growth in 2024, downside risks from Trump administration policies,...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

​Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These...

Steno Research

US: FOMC's Hawkish Outlook Is Optimistic Without a Fiscal Complement

​We expect no rate cuts in Q1CY25, as M2 growth (3.3%YoY Oct'24) and fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in year to Sep'24) are boosting growth. A Jun'25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Equity Outlook: Leadership Concentration Has Been Higher and Valuations Still Matter

S&P500 leadership is very concentrated, but previous peaks have been higher compared to present levels and the dot-com boom. Unrealistic earnings...

DeSaque Macro Research

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

We expect no rate cuts in Q1CY25, as M2 growth (3.3%YoY Oct'24) and fiscal stimulus (6.3% of GDP in year to Sep'24) are boosting growth. A Jun'25...